MLB Expert Predictions for Tuesday: Staff’s Favorite Pitcher Props, Over/Under Bets, More

MLB Expert Predictions for Tuesday: Staff’s Favorite Pitcher Props, Over/Under Bets, More article feature image

Photo credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jakob Junis

  • Our MLB experts examine their six favorite bets for Tuesday night, including the Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)

John Ewing: Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Chase Anderson (5-2, 3.73 ERA) vs. Steven Brault (3-1, 4.15 ERA)

  • Brewers Moneyline: -145
  • Pirates Moneyline: +130
  • Over/Under: 10
  • First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Chase Anderson takes the mound on Tuesday for his fourth start against the Pirates this season. He is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in his previous three starts, averaging five strikeouts per game.

Oddsmakers have set Anderson’s strikeout prop at only 3.5 Ks even though he has topped that in each start against Pittsburgh this season. He has been pitching well since the All-Star break, allowing two or fewer runs in each appearance and ringing up 4.6 batters per game.

According to the FantasyLabs prop tool, Anderson is projected to have 4.2 strikeouts against the Pirates. Given the current odds, this prop has received a Bet Quality Rating of 10 out of 10.

Given Anderson’s recent performance against the Pirates and our projection, over 3.5 Ks is a smart wager.

The PICK: Chase Anderson Over 3.5 Ks

Collin Wilson: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Jakob Junis (6-10, 5.03 ERA) vs. Andrew Cashner (10-6, 4.44 ERA)

  • Royals Moneyline: +160
  • Red Sox Moneyline: -175
  • Over/Under: 11
  • First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Umpire Brian Gorman has a statistical trend to over bettors: He’s 190-202 to the under (48.5%), making under bettors down -21.28 units lifetime. The umpire’s over percentage has increased since 2016, with a record of 45-33-1, per Bet Labs.

Our pitchers may also be in for a long night. Junis takes on a Boston lineup that is best in MLB in wRC+ and wOBA against right-handers since June 1. The Red Sox also support the lowest ground-ball rate of any team in that time frame, so expect plenty of balls for Royals outfielders to track down.

The Royals may get in the offense action as well. Cashner has thrown just one quality start in his past four outings, increasing his xFIP to 4.98. Kansas City’s offense has had some life since the beginning of July, ranking fifth overall in the league in line drive percentage against righties. That will come in handy with the Green Monster in play this evening.

The PICK: Over 11

Sean Zerillo: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Jakob Junis (6-10, 5.03 ERA) vs. Andrew Cashner (9-3, 3.83 ERA)

  • Royals Moneyline: +160
  • Red Sox Moneyline: -175
  • Over/Under: 11
  • First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

Despite the contrasting won/loss records and ERA numbers, there isn’t much between these two starting pitchers; if anything, I’d prefer Junis:

Cashner had no command in his last start against the Rays, walking five batters and allowing seven runs on seven hits. He has a 5.64 ERA, 4.80 FIP and 4.90 xfIP since the beginning of July.

Junis has a 4.54 ERA, 4.38 FIP and 4.14 xFIP over the same period, as he has increased his slider usage to a career-high. He’s at 46% — 7% higher than Clayton Kershaw, and easily the highest in baseball among starting pitchers.

I would caution that the Red Sox rank second in baseball with a value of +15.1 against sliders (Houston ranks first at +18.6). However, there is clear value on the Royals here, particularly in the first five innings, and I’ll happily go against the worst starter on a struggling Red Sox team.

The PICK: Kansas City Royals (+175) First Five Innings Moneyline

Danny Donahue: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

Hector Santiago (1-0, 6.75 ERA) vs. Drew VerHagen (1-2, 11.66 ERA)

  • White Sox Moneyline: +105
  • Tigers Moneyline: -115
  • Over/Under: 10
  • First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

The 32-76 Tigers being favored over the 49-61 White Sox is a bit of a head-scratcher, but when a line doesn’t make any sense, there’s always a reason. In fact, since 2005, when a favorite whose win rate is at least 15 percentage points lower than its opponent in the second half of the season, that team has gone 112-81, winning 15.9 units for a decent 8.3% ROI.

What’s especially appealing about the Tigers tonight, though, is how they became favorites. After opening as +100 underdogs, they’ve been hit hard enough by sharps to convince oddsmakers to swap the plus and minus signs despite getting just 25% of bets.

Pair the sharp action with a historically profitable spot and I’ll happily jump on board.

The PICK: Tigers -115

Evan Abrams: Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds

Jose Suarez (2-2, 5.66 ERA) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (6-6, 4.07 ERA)

  • Angels Moneyline: +130
  • Reds Moneyline: -140
  • Over/Under: 10
  • First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

The Angels are falling apart at the seams. Los Angeles has lost five consecutive games, including nine of its last 11 games and have beat only the Orioles and Tigers in that span. On Tuesday, the Angels will start Jose Suarez, who owns a 5.66 ERA in 2019 but more importantly has been prone to the long ball on the road (allowing 7 HR in 5 starts).

One thing to watch out for with Suarez is the leadoff batter, who is hitting .310 with five home runs and a .714 slugging percentage against him this season.

On the flip side, DeSclafani has been very consistent as of late, allowing three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts (3.17 ERA), including just 13 walks and 60 strikeouts. At home in that span, DeSclafani owns a 1.59 ERA, allowing only two home runs in 28.1 innings pitched.

Almost the complete opposite of L.A., Cincinnati has been surging as of late, winning seven of its last 10 games, and the pressure is on to keep up pace in the packed NL Central.

The PICK: Reds (-140) and -0.5 1st 5 Innings (-110)

Mark Gallant: Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

Trent Thornton (4-7, 5.23 ERA) vs. Andrew Kittredge (1-0, 2.52 ERA)

  • Blue Jays Moneyline: +175
  • Rays Moneyline: -190
  • Over/Under: 8.5
  • First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

The Blue Jays shocked the world last night by shutting out the Rays on their own turf. Just 23% of bettors backed Jacob Waguespack and the Jays against Cy Young candidate Charlie Morton and the Rays, who reached nearly -300 on the moneyline.

Tonight, bettors are in the exact same boat as they were in last night, as just 24% of the market is on Toronto. Trent Thornton, who has been really hit-or-miss in his rookie season, goes up against Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Yarbrough, who will reportedly take over once Kittredge is done opening.

The Jays are matching a couple handfuls of Bet Labs systems, including several ‘bet against the public’ angles. With seven wins in their last 10, they’re getting pretty hot thanks to their exciting young core of Vladdy Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio. At +175, I think there’s plenty of value to go against the grain tonight.

The PICK: Blue Jays +175

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