MLB Tuesday Weather: Winds Impacting Athletics-Cubs, 2 Other Games
Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Lester.
- Using the Action Network's betting tools, we've analyzed how weather is impacting Yankees-Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET), Marlins-Mets (7:10), and Athletics-Cubs (8:05).
Yankees (J. Holder) @ Orioles (A. Wojciechowski)
7:05 p.m. ET
Pitchers’ duel alert! Well, actually, Asher Wojciechowski hasn’t been half bad this year — especially for an Orioles pitcher. Jonathan Holder, on the other hand, has been awful, but he’s only expected to open for an inning or so in what will be a bullpen game for the Yankees.
Last night, the Bronx Bomber backups led the team to a 9-6 victory. The 5 through 9 hitters looked like this:
- Mike Ford
- Brett Gardner
- Austin Romine
- Mike Tauchman
- Breyvic Valera
Not exactly the names anyone expected to see in the Yankees lineup in August. Tonight, the weather gods will be doing their best to help this ragtag bunch score some more runs — that goes for the Orioles, too, who have averaged 5.83 runs per game over their past 18.
Temperatures in the low 80s and a 7-8 mph breeze blowing out to left-center help combine for a 72 Weather Rating. Given the favorable weather and subpar pitching, this over/under opened at 11 this morning. I wouldn’t be shocked to see it rise, as yesterday’s game opened at 11 with Masahiro Tanaka on the mound.
Marlins (H. Noesi) @ Mets (Z. Wheeler)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Mets are thirsty for more wins after a double-header duo of Ws against the Fish yesterday. Citi Field certainly is not known for strong hitting conditions, but tonight is the 10th time this year that there’s been a Weather Rating of 65 or higher (67). While I’d love to tell you that the over is 9-0 with an average cover margin of five runs so far, it’s actually 3-6 with a -0.78 margin.
Eight runs have been scored on average in those games, which coincides with tonight’s total of 8. Zack Wheeler, whose ERA has been near or above five for most of the season, is looking to build upon his seven-inning shutout performance last go around against the White Sox.
NOTE: Hector Noesi will be starting in place of Jordan Yamamoto
Meanwhile, Marlins pitcher and seller of senkos, Jordan Yamamoto, is realizing that pitching in the MLB is harder than he once thought.
- First six starts: 34 innings, 1.59 ERA, 0 home runs allowed
- Last three starts: 14 innings, 9.64 ERA, 4 home runs allowed
Instead of getting Jordan Yamamoto, the Mets will be facing Hector Noesi in what will be his first MLB appearance since 2015! He does have solid strikeout and walk rates down in AAA this year, but has allowed nearly two dongs per nine innings.
More than 75% of early bettors are on the over, but the total has remained at its opener of 8.
Athletics (B. Anderson) @ Cubs (J. Lester)
8:05 p.m. ET
Wrigley, Wrigley, Wrigley. I think yesterday was probably the second time all year I didn’t take a wind-out-over at Wrigley and of course it cashed, which has been a rarity for an odd season of Chicago betting weather.
Tonight, the wind has flip-flopped and will be blowing in towards home plate. This season hasn’t been profitable for wind-in-unders at Wrigley, either, going just 7-7-1 so far.
Per Bet Labs, these unders have cashed at a much higher rate in games that close with totals higher than 7, which this one will certainly do, as it opened and has remained at 9.5.
- 7 or lower: 16-26-3 (38.1%)
- 7.5 or higher: 90-50-10 (64.3%)
Jon Lester doesn’t allow a ton of fly balls, but the Athletics do rank fourth as a team in fly-ball rate on offense. The Cubs, on the other hand, rank just 25th and Brett Anderson is a ground ball pitcher. With that said, this type of weather should impact the Athletics more than the Cubs, as they’ll likely hit more fly balls that might get knocked down by the wind.
I’m not going to miss out like I did on a windy Wrigley total last night, as I’ll be riding under 9.5 tonight.