MLB Odds & Expert Picks: 3 Best Bets For Wednesday, Including Mets vs. Red Sox & Giants vs. Padres
Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Crawford and Austin Slater.
- The Red Sox attempt to extend their six-game win streak as part of Wednesday night's slate in MLB.
- AL West and NL West duels highlight two other matchups of note.
- Our experts provide their three best bets for baseball action.
For Thursday’s best bets, please go here.
Our analyst have found angles on three of those games: Mets vs. Red Sox, Mariners vs. Athletics and Giants vs. Padres, with a run line, total and team total.
Here are our three best bets from Wednesday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
|10:10 p.m. ET|
Mets vs. Red Sox
Tanner McGrath: Chris Sale hasn’t been his elite self since returning from Tommy John, but he’s been more than adequate.
He’s been slightly overperforming, as his 2.40 ERA is about a run better than his expected statistics. But his 3.46 xERA and his 3.57 xFIP are more than acceptable numbers. His strikeout rate is down (9.30 K/9), but so is his walk rate (1.80 BB/9), and his .325 BABIP could regress back to career average .293 as he makes more starts.
However, the Red Sox aren’t complaining, they’re 5-1 in Sale’s six starts this reason, while Sale has gone 4-0 in decisions.
Meanwhile, let’s look at New York starter Taijuan Walker, who’s been a complete and utter disaster since the All-Star break. He’s posted a 6.26 ERA and a 6.67 FIP over his past 10 starts, and the Mets have won just one of those contests. Plus, Walker went 0-7 in decisions during that stretch.
Now, Walker gets to face the Red Sox, who have paced the league in wRC+ vs. RHPs over the past month (130). Boston’s won six straight and have built a 1.5-game lead in the AL wild card, and I don’t see Walker being a stopper today.
The Red Sox have won five straight games against the Mets dating back to last season, and I like them to win big today. I’ll give the run and take the Red Sox -1.5 at anything better than plus-money.
Mariners vs. Athletics
Kenny Ducey: It may sound crazy to take the over here with the Mariners facing a lefty and the A’s coming in ice-cold over the last two games, but hear me out.
Cole Irvin not only owns poor peripherals — a 4.80 xFIP, 4.88 xERA and a 39.2% hard-hit rate — he’s also been downright terrible against the Mariners this year. Despite Seattle’s inability to do damage against left-handed pitching, Irvin has struggled to get outs with an 8.49 ERA in three starts, which lasted just 11 ⅔ innings. He’s registered just five strikeouts in those games and has just fallen victim to an influx of baserunners.
On the other side of the coin, Chris Flexen has a nearly identical profile. His hard hit rate is higher than average and his expected ERA is around a full run higher than his real-life mark. He’s a pitcher who ranks in the bottom-8% of strikeout rate He will run into an A’s side striking out at the second-lowest clip in baseball over the last two weeks.
The A’s may have struggled against Seattle offensively the last two nights, but the larger sample size of this last month tells a very damning story for a pitcher teetering on the brink of regression. I think we should see some runs scored in this one and love this deal.
Giants vs. Padres
|10:10 p.m. ET|
DJ James: The San Francisco Giants have clobbered right-handed pitchers this month (and frankly all season), and they get to face a newly-acquired right-hander for the San Diego Padres, Vince Velasquez.
The Phillies recently designated him for assignment, and the Padres did not get enough of Jake Arrieta, so they signed a similar pitcher. Velasquez allowed four earned runs in first four innings of work in a Padres uniform last week, so he has not quite yet turned it around. Do not expect that to start in this matchup.
Velasquez features his four-seam fastball 51.1% of the time and throws is around 93 mph. On four-seamers from righties between 92 and 94 mph, the Giants own a .406 xwOBA and an Average Exit Velocity of 94.1 mph in September. They are no slouch, and given Velasquez’s struggles all season, they should be able to get to him in the first inning.
Out of 11 hitters with 20-plus plate appearances against right-handers this month, eight Giants hitters have posted a 100+ wRC+. Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt are both slugging above .800. Six guys have a .350-plus OBP, and they have 19 homers collectively.
Given these variables, the Giants first five over is intriguing. The line currently sits a 2.5 (+105), so take this to 3 (-110) and be ready to watch the San Francisco lineup mash yet another ailing right-handed starting pitcher.