MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Prediction: Best Bets For Thursday, Including Dodgers vs. Rockies & Rangers vs. Orioles (September 23)
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Lowther
It’s getaway day in Major League Baseball and there’s a host of afternoon games, including a doubleheader between the White Sox and Indians, plus a solid slate of games under the lights.
Our analysts have found angles on two games today — one early and one late — Los Angeles vs. Colorado and Texas vs. Baltimore.
Here are our two favorite bets from Thursday in Major League Baseball.
MLB Odds & Picks
|7:05 p.m. ET|
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Michael Arinze: No pitcher in Major League Baseball has been hotter than Max Scherzer. He’s won eight straight decisions, and his teams have won 11 straight starts. He’s also posted a 1.27 ERA with a 0.72 WHIP and 2.16 FIP. Those performances have catapulted him to be the odds-on favorite (-260) to win his fourth Cy Young Award.
On Thursday, Scherzer will face a Rockies team with a .170/.214/.396 slash line against him in 53 at-bats. While those numbers are impressive, I’m more interested in the total in this spot as the under is 4-1 (3.43 units) when he pitches in Colorado.
He’ll be opposed by the left-hander Kyle Freeland. This season, Los Angeles is hitting slightly worse against left-handers, as evidenced by their .239 AVG and .314 OBP.
It might come as a surprise to some, but Rockies games aren’t necessarily sailing over the total as you might suspect.
This season, the under is actually 82-64-5 for 13.07 units.
When you combine that with Freeland’s career mark of 14-0-1 to the under against the Dodgers, there’s only one way to play this game.
Take the under at 10.5 runs. I’m comfortable playing this down to 10.
Rangers vs. Orioles
|7:05 p.m. ET|
Collin Whitchurch: It’s not very often where you want to bet the Texas Rangers. It’s not very often you where you want to bet the Rangers as favorites.
But it’s also not very often where you get the opportunity to fade the Orioles without paying enormous juice.
I’m a Glenn Otto believer. If you want to join me, don’t look at his last two starts, where he was shelled by the Athletics and Astros. I’m not saying he’s going to become an ace, but he’s got solid swing-and-miss stuff, as evidenced by his 19 strikeouts in just 16 1/3 innings — all coming against above-average offenses.
He should be able to shut down the putrid Orioles that can only seem to muster up any offense when they face lefties. The Rangers’ offense is bad too, no doubt, but I feel more confident in them hitting Zac Lowther — and his five walks per nine — than the Orioles to hit Otto.
We’re talking about fading the worst team in baseball and getting close to even money to do it. To me, that’s a no-brainer. I would bet the Rangers moneyline to -120.
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