MLB Odds & Picks: 4 Best Bets for Tuesday, Including Red Sox vs. Mets, & Reds vs. Dodgers & More (April 27)
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Jeff Hoffman.
- A full slate of MLB action on Tuesday night brings value to bettors from the East Coast out to the West.
- Check out our team of analysts' four best picks for the evening.
For the first time this season, we have a full 15-game MLB slate and every single game will be played under the lights. The first game between the Twins and Indians begins at 6:10 p.m. ET and the next 14 will all begin over the next five hours, making for an incredibly busy Tuesday night of baseball.
Our analysts have found betting angles on four games from Tuesday’s slate, including Red Sox-Mets, Angels-Rangers, Rockies-Giants and Reds-Dodgers. You have moneyline favorites, moneyline underdogs, totals and team totals to choose from. Below, you’ll find our staff’s four best bets for Tuesday.
MLB Odds & Picks
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
Kenny Ducey: Let’s check in on the Mets, shall we? Has anything gotten better for this offense in the past week or so? The answer is no. New York scored six runs off of Eric Fedde and a tired Nats bullpen over the weekend, which is hardly anything to get excited about. Outside of that, it’s still been a real struggle to score runs. The Mets sit 15th in wRC+ against right-handers, and will face another one Tuesday in Garrett Richards.
The veteran hasn’t been the greatest this season, but he has flashed a great fastball and has only allowed two barrels in four starts. I am not sure that he’ll fold against a Mets lineup that continues to slump, and could give up a modest few runs.
On the other hand, I’m very confident in the Red Sox’s offense, which ranks sixth against lefties with a 121 wRC+ and gets to face the soft-tossing David Peterson. The southpaw ranks in the bottom-25% of the league in expected ERA and expected wOBA, and has allowed an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph. He has been brutal since debuting last season, and his 6.75 ERA is particularly bad when you consider he faced a slumping Cubs offense and an uninspiring Phillies lineup twice.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Mike Ianniello: This is one of those games that sets up for the perfect opportunity to fade two struggling pitchers in José Quintana and Mike Foltynewicz. We just saw this matchup last week, and that game ended with a 7-4 win for the Rangers.
Granted, both pitchers were not horrible in that one. Quintana allowed just one run over five innings and Foltynewicz gave up three runs over six. But both pitchers are on the decline and I think it will benefit the offenses that they just saw these pitchers.
Quintana has lasted an average of just 3 1/3 innings per start this year, and has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 innings. He has also walked 11 batters and at least three in each start. He has a Hard Hit% of 46.2%, an xwOBA against of .354 and teams are batting .279 against him.
Foltynewicz has allowed 13 runs in 22 innings this year, and has surrendered at least three runs in four of his five starts. He struggles to keep the ball in the park, allowing eight home runs already this season. His ERA is high at 5.32 but his FIP is even higher at 6.77. He has allowed a 50% Hard Hit%, ranking in the bottom-8% of the league and he sits in the bottom-20% in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xSLG, Barrel% and Whiff%.
The Angels have been crushing the ball this season, ranking fourth in the league in wOBA and second in wRC+ and batting average. While the Rangers’ offense is nothing to write home about, they have been much better recently, ranking ninth in wOBA and eight in wRC+ over the last seven days.
I like the total to go over 9 and I would play it to -125.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Sean Zerillo: Through 23 games, the San Francisco Giants (15-8) are tied with the LA Dodgers for the best record in baseball and rank second in both the NL and all of MLB in run differential (+22).
I was high on this Giants team coming into the season, and they only need to go 59-80 (.424) over their remaining schedule to hit the over on their preseason win total (73.5).
The Giants’ offense has been league-average (.332 xwOBA, 13th), but their pitching (.292 xwOBA, fourth) has been exceptional, and their defense (seven Outs Above Average, third; +2 Defensive Runs Saved, 18th) has been solid too.
Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies have been abysmal, and GM Jeff Bridich stepped down on Monday to avoid further shame this season. They are playing at a 59-win pace as a team, rank 26th in xwOBA on offense (.306) and 24th on the pitching side (.347).
On Tuesday, Colorado will trot out my favorite fade-worthy pitcher: Chi Chi González. I don’t think he’d still have a big-league job without his draft pedigree (first Round, 2013). González is right-handed, his stuff is mediocre (bottom quartile in fastball velocity), and he has no command over his arsenal.
González owns a career 2.2% strikeout minus walk rate, with a total of 107 strikeouts against 91 walks over 175 career innings. ERA indicators (5.18 FIP, 5.66 SIERA, 5.38 XFIP) say that González has over-performed (7-16, 4.94 ERA) in his career. He has maintained an ERA of 3.00 over four appearances this season, despite an 8:7 strikeout to walk rate in 15 innings pitched (thanks to a 0.0% HR/FB rate vs. 11.9% career).
In San Francisco, Aaron Sanchez is undergoing a career resurgence (3.40 FIP, 3.86 SIERA, 4.06 xFIP, 3.19 xERA) with a fastball averaging just 90.1 mph (down -4.4 mph vs. career average). He’s throwing his curveball (32.2%, 16.5% career) more frequently than ever before while dialing back the usage of both his four-seam fastball and changeup.
Sanchez has posted a 59.3% groundball rate in 2021 — his best mark since 2015 (60.6%) — and though he’s not generating strikeouts at a high clip, if Sanchez can maintain that groundball rate and solid command (5% walk rate, vs. 10.2% career) he’ll continue to pitch effectively.
I made the Giants a 66% favorite for the game and a 68% favorite for the first five innings (F5) on Tuesday.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Brad Cunningham: Jeff Hoffman went to Cincinnati from the Rockies, where he could never solidify himself in Colorado’s rotation. Now, he’s been thrust into Cincinnati’s starting rotation, which could prove to be fatal.
Hoffman posted an ERA and xFIP above five in each of his five seasons with Colorado. So far this season, he’s lowered his ERA down to 2.65 through his first four starts, but he’s due for some negative regression because his xERA is all the way up at 5.21.
The Reds have one of the worst bullpens in MLB and will be a tad taxed after using three of their top four relievers on Monday night. Finally, Cincinnati came into the season projected to be the worst fielding team in baseball, so all of this is not going to bode well against potentially the best lineup in baseball.
The Dodgers should be able to hit a predominantly fastball pitcher like Hoffman, since they were the second-best team against fastballs last season and were second in wOBA against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers have continued that into 2021, where they already have a .349 wOBA and 123 wRC+ against righties, which is the best mark in MLB.
I have the Dodgers projected for 5.67 runs tonight, so I think there is some value on their team total Over 4.5 at -108.