MLB Betting Odds & Picks: 3 Best Bets for Monday for Yankees vs. Orioles & Brewers vs. Marlins (April 26)
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Rogers
- An 11-game slate on Monday night has plenty for bettors to feast on, but three of our MLB analysts have targeted two games as their best bets.
- Check out their favorite wagers below for Yankees vs. Orioles and Marlins vs. Brewers.
There are 11 games on the MLB schedule for Monday, with an afternoon tilt between the Royals and Tigers followed by 10 games starting at 6:10 p.m. ET or later. We have Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Angels against the Rnagers (8:05 p.m. ET) and newly minted phenom Corbin Burnes taking on the Marlins in Milwaukee (7:40 p.m. ET).
Our analysts have found three bets to recommend for Monday's slate, including a pair of picks from that aforementioned Brewers-Marlins tilt. Below, you will find our staff's three best bets for Monday.
MLB Odds & Picks
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Brad Cunningham: Matt Harvey may be pitching better in 2021, but he's still really struggling with his fastball. So far this season, he's throwing it more than 60% of the time, so he clearly trusts it way more than any other pitch, and he's allowing a .365 wOBA against it. Last season, he allowed a .494 wOBA against his fastball, so he has improved, but I don't think that will be enough against this powerful Yankees lineup.
Even though the Yankees' offense has struggled through the first 21 games, this is a fantastic matchup for them. Last year, the Yankees hit right-handed pitching to the tune of a .349 wOBA, which was fourth in MLB, and they were the sixth best team against fastballs. So, I expect the Yankees' lineup in a hitter-friendly park like Camden Yards to get to Harvey and the Orioles' bullpen.
I have the Yankees projected for 5.98 runs tonight, so I think there is some value on their team total over 5.5 at +108.
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Sean Zerillo: Corbin Burnes (24 1/3 IP, 0.37 ERA, 0 BB, 40 K, 0.71 FIP, 1.00 xERA, 1.25 xFIP, 1.13 SIERA) has captured the imagination of baseballs fans with his incredible start to the 2021 campaign.
The righty is both throwing harder than ever before (97.2 mph, up from 95.6 mph for his career) and recently overhauled his pitch mix. He's now throwing a cutter more than half the time (50.7%), which he first introduced last season (31.4% usage). But he's not going to be able to maintain a .171 BABIP, or a 100% strand rate, either.
We should be talking about the electric start from Marlins rookie Trevor Rogers (22 IP, 1.64 ERA, 10 BB, 31 K, 2.37 FIP, 2,41 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.27 SIERA) who outdueled Jacob deGrom and looks like the early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year.
The big southpaw is due for some regression too (.250 BABIP, 83.3% strand rate, 5% HR/FB rate), but he has already established himself as one of the most intriguing young pitchers in the game. with major velocity (95 mph) and strong command from the left side.
I projected the Marlins at 37.7% over the first five innings, and at 40.8% over the full game on Monday. I don't see a ton of value on their F5 moneyline, but I would bet their full-game price at +151 or better.
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Kenny Ducey: Trevor Rogers has been one of the great stories so far in 2021, dazzling in four start to post 1.64 ERA with very nice expected stats. He’s allowed just one barrel in 45 batted ball events, and has struck out an impressed 35.6% of the batters he’s faced.
With that said, look at the competition he’s faced. He struggled against the Cardinals, walking four and allowing two earned runs in his first outing of the year before shutting down the Mets, Braves and Orioles. I don’t know if you’ve watched those three offenses lately, but woof!
I’m not saying Rogers isn’t good, but he’s certainly not unhittable. The Brewers enter the day with the 10th-best wRC+ against southpaws at 115 this season, and are walking at a 13.8% clip against them, the highest rate in the majors. Rogers’ one Achilles' heel is his walk rate, which sits in the bottom 28% of the league. That, and he gives up some really hard contact.
The Brewers should be his toughest test, and should match up quite well against Rogers. On the other side of the coin, Corbin Burnes has been unhittable, and Miami ranks 27th in wRC+ against righties. The Marlins have been getting shut down left and right by pretty middling hurlers after losing Starling Marte, Brain Anderson and Jorge Alfaro to injury, so Burnes should absolutely dominate. This is a wondrous price.
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