Rockies vs. Dodgers MLB Odds & Picks: Run Line Worth a Look With LA’s Dominant Lineup (Thursday, April 15)
Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urías
- The Dodgers, as usual, are favorites against the Rockies on Thursday night.
- LA sends Julio Urías to the mound while Colorado counters with Austin Gomber.
- Is there value in the Dodgers as big favorites? Michael Arinze breaks down the matchup and makes his pick.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-108 / -113)|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Thursday morning and via DraftKings.|
The Dodgers will try to sweep the Rockies on Thursday, with Julio Urías aiming for his third win. Urías will be opposed by Austin Gomber for Colorado in a rematch of their series finale earlier this season. Urías was dominant in that matchup as he went seven strong innings while surrendering only one run.
In contrast, Gomber’s outing ended prematurely after issuing seven walks in three innings. He was, however, better in his next outing as he picked up a quality start with 6 1/3 innings of work and two earned runs, but still struggled with his command and allowed four walks.
Those walks could come back to bite him yet again as he’ll be facing a Dodgers team that’s tied for third in league with a 12.1 percent walk rate.
Colorado traded one of its best players in Nolan Arenado and didn’t necessarily restock its lineup with major league-ready talent. One of the pieces they did get back in the trade, however, was Gomber.
Gomber has two years of service in the majors, and last season he made four starts in 14 appearances for the Cardinals. He finished the season with a 1-1 record and a 1.86 ERA. However, his xERA of 4.07 was more than double his actual ERA, which can help be explained by his 4.66 BB/9 ratio. After two starts this season, his BB/9 ratio is already up to 10.61.
When you look at Gomber’s numbers across the board, his command or lack thereof is really the only thing that’s holding him back at the moment. Based on his four-pitch mix, the slider is the only pitch that’s at least one run below average, according to Pitch Info’s data metrics at FanGraphs.
That notwithstanding, the free passes are a legitimate concern because they can wreck a game against even a bad team. And we know that the Dodgers are more formidable than your average foe.
Their lineup has only 29 plate appearances against Gomber, yet they’ve been able to draw 10 walks. So basically, a batter is reaching base every three plate appearances.
Hitting with men on base is something the Dodgers have done well this season, as evidenced by their above-average wRC+ of 103 in this spot.
And with a .460 wOBA against Gomber, they should have plenty of chances to score runs in the ballgame.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Urías is in his sixth season in the majors, yet he’s only 24 years old. That should tell you a bit about what the Dodgers think about his quality, considering they called him up to the majors at the age of 19.
Urías showed his worth in last year’s playoffs as he made six appearances with two starts and registered a 1.17 ERA with a 0.65 WHIP in 23 innings. He was on the mound for the final out of their World Series win over the Rays.
That kind of performance can catapult a young pitcher, and it appears Urías has carried that good form right into this season. He’s won both of his decisions, and his 2.98 FIP suggests he’s done a good job controlling what he can in terms of strikeouts, walks, home runs, etc.
While it’s only a limited sample, what’s most intriguing about Urías is that his walk rate (BB/9) is down more than two-thirds from 2.95 in 2020 to 0.71 this season. His groundball rate is up from 32.9 percent to 40 percent, while hard percent on batted balls is down from 38.5 to 27.5.
There’s a lot to like about Urías in this matchup as he’ll be facing a Colorado lineup that has struggled against him considering its .211/.278/.324 line in 71 at-bats.
The Dodgers are as high as a -300 favorite in this game at some books. In fact, they’re going to be a massive favorite in just about every game they play, so you’ll really have to get creative with your wagers should you choose to back them.
One possible option would be to back them on the run line, where they’d have to win by at least two runs to cash your ticket.
Dating back to the 2020 season, if you took this approach and blindly backed the Dodgers in this spot, you’d be up 12.72 units.
Not only do the Dodgers score in the early frames, but they also consistently tack on runs in the later innings, which is what you want to see, particularly if you’re backing them on the run line. Their numbers against Gomber are encouraging, albeit in a limited sample size.
Gomber’s 5.17 FIP, which is almost three runs higher than his ERA, does suggest his luck could run out if he continues to hand out free passes.
Look for Urías to continue to stymie a Rockies lineup that’s ranked 29th with a wRC+ of 64.
I like the Dodgers to win by at least two runs and pick up their fifth consecutive victory. DraftKings has the best run line price (-129) on the board, and that’s exactly how I’ll look to play this matchup.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-129)
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