The Philadelphia Phillies host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 13, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
Two of the hottest teams in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies, will continue their series in Pennsylvania.
Sonny Gray will toe the slab for the Cardinals, while Jesus Luzardo will have the honors for Philadelphia.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cardinals vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction
- Cardinals vs Phillies picks: Phillies -1.5 (+100 or better)
My Cardinals vs Phillies best bet is on the Phillies to cover the run line. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Cardinals vs Phillies Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +135 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -160 |
Cardinals vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | Stat | RHP Sonny Gray (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 2.11 / 3.29 | ERA /xERA | 3.50 / 4.14 |
| 2.33 / 3.25 | FIP / xFIP | 3.61 / 3.46 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 3.9 | K-BB% | 4.3 |
| 43.3 | GB% | 33.9 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 112 | Location+ | 97 |
Sean Paul’s Cardinals vs Phillies Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
The hottest team in Major League Baseball is the St. Louis Cardinals, who are on an eight-game win streak entering this series. They're now just two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central race.
Taking the hill for the Cardinals is their ace, Sonny Gray. The veteran starter enters Tuesday's outing with a 3.50, an elevated 4.14 xERA, and 3.61 FIP.
Gray is a very accomplished big-leaguer, but he's never been a metrics darling. This year is no exception, as Gray ranks in the 32nd percentile among qualified pitchers in xBA allowed and 34th in hard hit rate allowed. With Gray's declining strikeout rate and lack of whiffs, seeing teams make more contact and harder contact is a concern.
So, what's been the secret sauce to the Cardinals' turnaround? They're hitting the ball!
The Cardinals rank ninth among MLB lineups with a 114 wRC+.
The Cardinals have excelled at working pitchers and forcing them into difficult counts. They have a terrific 10.8% walk rate and a sub-20 % strikeout rate in March.
The one issue that points to this sudden offense surge being unsustainable is their lack of power. But that isn't a shocker, as the Cardinals are more contact than power-driven.
Two of St Louis's best contact hitters are total non-factors against lefties. Alec Burleson is a strict platoon option, who is 0-for-10 versus southpaws, while Victor Scott II is hitting .226 against lefties.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
When the Phillies snared Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins, it didn’t get the credit it deserved.
He’s shifted the narrative with a splendid start to his 2025 campaign, posting a 2.11 ERA with a 3.27 xERA and a 2.33 FIP. Most impressive, Luzardo has already doubled his fWAR in four fewer starts than last season.
The biggest key for Luzardo turning things around is limiting the long balls. He’s dropped his home runs per nine innings allowed from 1.22 last season to 0.38 this year. He won’t avoid homers at that rate all season, but it'll be huge if he can keep that mark below 1.00.
Philadelphia's offense has found its stride since the calendar flipped to May, boasting a dazzling 120 wRC+. The Phillies' most significant strength is in the power department, hitting 15 homers across 11 games.
Unsurprisingly, the offensive surge coincides with Kyle Schwarber getting hot. The left-handed hitting slugger leads the Phillies with a 212 wRC+ in May.
In addition to Schwarber heating up, Alec Bohm has also done so. He still has a brutal 71 wRC+ on the season, but he's hitting .344 with a 152 wRC+ across his past nine games. If he continues to be an above-league-average hitter, it adds extra length to an already potent lineup.
The Phillies don't walk much, posting a 7.7% walk rate in May. However, they also limit strikeouts, ranking among the top 10 MLB lineups with a 20% strikeout rate.
That could allow Cardinals starter Sonny Gray to pitch deeper, but the point is moot if the Phillies crush him.
Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
While the Cardinals are other-worldly hot, this is the ideal spot to jump off the bandwagon and fade them.
They won't have the threats of Scott and Burleson to make Luzardo's life tougher. Luzardo is also a better pitcher than this version of Gray. He's been dominant, allowing more than two runs in just one of his eight outings.
I see the Phillies pulling out a comfortable win, which makes the run line a strong play.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+100 or better)
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline unless the Phillies drop below -150.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm backing the Phillies on the run line at any plus-money price.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the total.
Cardinals vs Phillies Betting Trends
