Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, May 13.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Marlins vs Cubs, Rockies vs Rangers, Yankees vs Mariners, and Twins vs Orioles. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Tuesday, May 13
Twins vs. Orioles
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 9 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -110o / -110u | -135 |
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs. LHP Cade Povich (BAL)
I projected 9.68 runs for this game pre-umpire.
The Tuesday forecast calls for 70-degree weather and a 14 mph crossbreeze; there's a 91% chance of rain, so this game may get rained out, delayed or pushed.
This game features a pair of back-end starters — Woods Richardson with a projected FIP range of 4.34-to-4.67, and Povich from 4.26-to-4.93.
Povich was roughed up in his last outing, surrendering five runs, all in the third inning, across six innings against the Twins. He has a career 5.31 ERA, 4.8 xFIP and 4.67 SIERA through 23 starts. His xERA is up from 4.11 to 6.28 this year.
The left-hander has decent command (105 Location +), but his arsenal, besides his slider (100 Stuff+), is below average.
Woods Richardson had mixed results in his last outing, giving up two runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Orioles. He has a career 4.27 ERA, 4.63 xFIP and 4.51 SIERA through 35 starts; his xERA is up from 4.02 last year to 5.46 this year.
He has a quality changeup (107 Stuff+), but it's his least-used pitch at 13% (which is down 6% from his career rate).
Pick: Over 9 (-108 to -117)
Marlins vs. Cubs
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
RHP Valente Bellozo (MIA) vs. RHP Ben Brown (CHI)
Tuesday's weather forecast at Wrigley Field will be similar to Monday's (62 degrees; 5 mph winds blowing in).
This triggered an Action Labs system for Wind/Weather, including the same Wrigley Field Under system as Monday (294-194-23; 60.2% win; 15.7% ROI since 2005).
The Marlins and Cubs are two of the best over teams this season, combining for a 48-29-4 (62.3%) record.
As for the pitchers …
Ben Brown mainly uses two pitches — a 113 Stuff+ knucklecurve (39% usage; .295 xwOBA in 2025, .183 in 2024) and an 83 Stuff+ fastball (59% use; .362 xwOBA in 2025, .401 in 2024).
He has a career 3.6 xFIP and 18.7% strikeout minus walk rate with great projections (FIP range of 3.51-to-3.87). Pitching models are not as high on him — 95 Stuff+, 4.59 botERA.
Bellozo has a career 5.54 xFIP and 7.3% strikeout minus walk rate. He grades out with a 124 Stuff+ on his slider (16% use), but a 93 Stuff+ overall with a 5.14 botERA.
I project 8.47 runs on a typical day, which Tuesday is not (7.52 runs).
I also make the Cubs -285 favorites for the first five innings (F5).
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120) or Under 8 (-110); Cubs F5 Moneyline (to -260)
Rockies vs. Rangers
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +196 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
LHP Kyle Freeland (COL) vs. RHP Jack Leiter (TEX)
The roof at Globe Life Field was ultimately open on Monday (82 degrees first pitch) — it will be much warmer on Tuesday (94 degrees).
The Rangers extended their record as the best under team to date: 28-13-1 (+30.5% ROI; $1,280 for a consistent $100 bettor).
The Rockies are now 14-6 on unders away from Coors Field, behind a shocking 51 wRC+ and .537 OPS.
Jack Leiter has had an enigmatic professional career to date. His ERA is a bloated 7.36 but has strong Stuff+ (107) and botERA (3.89) marks. He has three plus pitches — 123 fastball, 108 slider, 105 changeup.
Kyle Freeland has shown improved command this season with a career-best 3.8% walk rate; his strikeout minus walk rate is above average over the past two years.
Remarkably, he has a career 4.44 xFIP at Coors Field compared to 4.64 on the road
I projected the Rangers' lineup without Corey Seager, who is dealing with a hamstring issue. I would increase the projection to 8.16 if he’s back in and adjust the price target to 8.5 (-105).
Pick: Under 8.5 (-102 to -112)
Royals vs. Astros
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +118 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
LHP Kris Bubic (KC) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (HOU)
The Kris Bubic Breakout is happening (1.69 ERA, 3.38 xERA, 17% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.70 botERA).
He had a 4.85 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, and a 10% strikeout minus walk rate in 60 games started through 2023 and then worked out of the bullpen in 2024, where he scrapped his curveball for a slider (up from 15% to 35%) and kept this mix in his return to the rotation.
Bubic has reverse splits, with a career 4.04 xFIP and 13% strikeout minus walk rate vs. RHH (compared to 4.77 + 8.4% vs. LHH).
Framber Valdez is struggling with the new zone — CSW% of 27.1% is his lowest mark since 2019. He has a 4.46 xERA and 13.8% K-BB% (down from 3.41 and 16.2%). His ground ball rate is down from his typical 60% or higher to 53% (similar to his 2023 season when his xERA increased north of 4).
The Royals' offense has been unlucky, ranking 3rd among MLB lineups in xWOBA differential — .292 actual (26th), .316 expected (23rd) — behind the White Sox (.278 actual, .304 expected) and Pirates. (.283 vs. 319).
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+125 to +117)
Yankees vs. Mariners
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 7 -115o / -105u | -140 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 7 -115o / -105u | +118 |
LHP Max Fried (LAA) vs. RHP Bryan Woo (SEA)
Bryan Woo looks to be elite.
He had a 2.72 xERA in 2024 (2.88 in 2025), with a 20.7% strikeout minus walk rate, 112 Pitching+, 2.70 botERA (105 Fastball, 112 Sinker, 105 Slider) and excellent command (3.3% BB% since last season). His projections (FIP range of 3.34 to 3.81) are in the ballpark of Max Fried, who has a 3.41 xERA, 17.3% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+ and 3.46 botERA.
Fried's projected FIP range is 3.39 to 3.61.
The Mariners' bullpen has had worse results (19th xFIP, 24th K-BB% vs. 12th/13th for the Yankees), but superior pitch modeling metrics (11th vs. 27th in Pitching+, 6th vs. 18th in botERA).
Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+120 to +113)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, May 13
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- Royals Moneyline (+125 to +117)
- Mariners Moneyline (+120 to +113)
- Phillies F5 (-145 to -150)
- Cubs F5 (-220 to -260)
- MIN/BAL Over 9 (-108 to -117)
- BOS/DET Over 8 (-115) to 8.5 (+100)
- CWS/CIN Over 9 (-115 to -118)
- MIA/CHC Under 8.5 (-120) to 8 (-110)
- COL/TEX Under 8.5 (-102) to (-112)
