Sunday MLB Odds, Picks for Marlins vs. Giants: Value on Miami Away from Home (April 25)
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jesus Aguilar.
- Miami's bats finally awakened it the ninth inning last night against the Giants, exploding for four runs in the final frame.
- Is this a sign of things to come, or just a fluke as the Marlins continue to struggle at the plate.
- Kenny Ducey explains it's likely just a fluke, but he's backing Miami nonetheless in Sunday's game.
Marlins vs. Giants Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-105 / -117)|
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings.|
One of the best rotations in baseball will once again trot out an unappealing name with quite appealing numbers on Sunday.
San Francisco’s Logan Webb will be the one to take the ball on Sunday, who’s probably the worst of the bunch, though he did look great for his first three starts of the season. He’ll look to keep the Marlins’ bats quiet, which could be a taller task than expected after a couple big innings in their past two games.
Can one of these slumping teams finally break through at the dish, or are we headed for yet another low-scoring affair? Let’s take a look at the matchup and find out.
The Marlins once again exploded for a crooked number late, taking Saturday’s game 5-2 behind a four-run ninth. Before then, though, hits were difficult to come by, which has been the story of the season for Miami. This team now sits in 26th against right-handers with a lowly 78 wRC+, but it’s also without some key members of the lineup in Jorge Alfaro, Brian Anderson and Starling Marte. The question here becomes, what do we make of this big inning? Is it the start of something different, or just proof that Jesús Aguilar is the only good hitter left for this team?
I’m of the opinion it’s more of the latter, considering we saw a late Aguilar homer on Friday lead to nothing different at the plate. With that said, however, Corey Dickerson has been a massive disappointment all season, but is a skilled veteran hitter, so there’s not necessarily reason to give up on him just yet. The same would go for Jon Berti, who along with Dickerson, drove in a run in that ninth inning. Both men were key for Miami last year, and perhaps this will get them going.
At any rate, the offense will be important because the Marlins will be running a bullpen game and won’t have a stud like Pablo López to back them up.
As an aside, Miami’s win on Saturday meant it now moves to 5-4 on the year playing away from home, putting the Fish in a pretty nice spot here.
San Francisco Giants
Webb certainly hasn’t put San Francisco in too many adverse positions this year, but it’s also hard to say he’s put the team in a position to win in his four starts. Webb’s last time out was kind of a nightmare; he lasted just four innings and gave up four runs on seven hits and two walks. He’s been superb at limiting soft contact this year, but his low strikeout rate and poor walk rate have led to a pretty middling season.
San Francisco hasn’t been the strongest at the plate this season, and over the past week not much has changed. This lineup ranks right in the middle of the league with a 94 wRC+ in the past seven calendar days, looking pretty weak at the plate.
Without a clear picture of what the Marlins will be doing pitching-wise, it’s hard to look at this matchup from a splits standpoint, but we can rest assured this team has been bad at the plate, and doesn’t have too much after Tommy La Stella — who has been great — and Mike Yastrzemski. Evan Longoria had been looking great at the plate, but is currently on the shelf.
Another area San Francisco has looked dominant, despite a tough couple of days, is in the bullpen, where it’s posted an impressive 3.93 ERA to rank 10th in the league. In what could very well turn into a battle of bullpens, the Giants have the slightest of edges here.
The odds are set the way they are because no one wants to put any trust into the Marlins when their pitching situation is a relative unknown. With that said, their bullpen isn’t too far behind San Francisco’s, ranking 12th with a 4.03 ERA, and I’m inclined to think they could be just a hair behind Logan Webb. That’s enough for me to put my faith in the Marlins, who may have the better offense at the moment — though that’s not saying much — and have been great on the road.
Pick: Marlins +145 (-110)