Mets vs. Phillies Odds & Picks: Bet On Scoring Tuesday Night

Mets vs. Phillies Odds & Picks: Bet On Scoring Tuesday Night article feature image
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Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper connects for a single during a recent game.

  • It was a long wait for the Mets, but they finally got their season started in Monday's 5-3 loss to the Phillies.
  • Mike Vitanza breaks down the latest game below and details why he expects plenty of runs on Tuesday.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds

Mets Odds -136
Phillies Odds +115
Over/Under 9
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds as of Tuesday morning via PointsBet.

After a lengthy break between spring training and the regular season due to Covid-19 concerns, the New York Mets fell victim to the Philadelphia Phillies in a 5-3 loss Monday in what was their first game of the year.

The Phillies were paced by strong performances from Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius, all who contributed big hits and drove in runs in the comeback win.

Meanwhile, the Mets managed 10 hits, but just three runs on the backs of Michael Conforto, James McCann and Jacob DeGrom in the defeat. Despite having an early lead, the bullpen gave up five runs after DeGrom left the game.

Will the pitching hold up in Tuesday’s meeting or will we see a high-scoring affair between these division rivals?

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New York Mets

Marcus Stroman will get the start for the Mets after missing the entire 2019 season on the COVID-19 exempt list. While the layoff would typically be troubling, Stroman is coming off of a strong spring training, where he finished witha 3.44 ERA. He struck out 17 batters over 18 1/3 innings as well.

Stroman has added a split-finger changeup to his repertoire, plus he has seen a jump in his fastball velocity since last being on the mound during the regular season.

In 2019, Stroman recorded a respectable 3.99 xFIP over 184 1/3 innings pitched. He was successful in limiting the long ball, allowing just 0.88 HR per nine innings.

On the other side, the Phillies were one of the better teams in baseball last season against right-handed pitching, collecting a .331 team wOBA in such situations. That will only improve with the addition of uber-prospect Alec Bohm to the everyday lineup. Bohm has already recorded a .381 wOBA and 139 wRC+ against righties at the big-league level in his young career.

The Mets’ bullpen also struggled in Monday’s season debut, yielding five runs (two earned) on four hits and a walk in two innings.


Philadelphia Phillies

Chase Anderson will make his first start for the Phillies after signing a one-year, $4-million contract to fill the fifth spot in the starting rotation. Anderson struggled mightily in 2020, compiling a 7.22 ERA and 6.16 FIP. He also allowed 2.94 HR/9 for the Toronto Blue Jays.

While he only pitched a total of 33 1/3 innings, Anderson saw a marked increase in his Barrell percentage (16.2% in 2020 vs. 5.6% in 2019) and Hard Hit % (38.1% in 2020 vs. 31.5% in 2019). He also saw his average fastball velocity drop from 93.6 mph in 2019 to 92.6 in 2020, which are all negative indicators relative to future performance.

On Tuesday, he gets the unenviable task of taking on a team that was one of the best in baseball in 2020 against right-handed pitching, collectively hitting to a .353 wOBA and 125 wRC+ in such situations. They’ve also since added Francisco Lindor, whose .347 career wOBA and .210 ISO against right-handed pitching will only make things more difficult for Anderson.

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Mets-Phillies Pick

While Stroman showed strength throughout spring training, he’ll be making his first professional appearance since 2019 and faces an opponent that hits right-handed pitching exceptionally well. The Mets’ bullpen also struggled out of the gate, allowing five runs in just in two innings once DeGrom exited.

On the other side, the Phillies will be fielding a starting pitcher in Anderson, who struggled mightily in 2020, and will have to face a Mets team that finished third in all of baseball last year with a .353 wOBA against righties.

This game has all the makings of a high-scoring, back-and-forth tilt between division rivals. The total on this game started at 8.5 runs and almost immediately jumped to 9 at sports books.

That said, give me the over in this showdown up to 9.5 runs.

Pick: Total Over 9 Runs (-110)

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