Sunday Major League Baseball Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Favorite Bet for Cardinals vs. Cubs (June 13)

Sunday Major League Baseball Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Favorite Bet for Cardinals vs. Cubs (June 13) article feature image
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Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Rizzo.

  • It's another full day of baseball filled with early-afternoon action that culminates with Sunday Night Baseball.
  • Our staff has their two best bets for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox and Cardinals vs. Cubs. See how Jeff Hicks and Sean Zerillo are picking the games, below.

Major League Baseball is back with 15 more games on Sunday, including nine that throw first pitch in the 1 p.m. ET hour.

Our action today starts with Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox in the early window, before wrapping up the night with Sunday Night Baseball between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs.

Check out each pick complete with a full breakdown, and use the table below to navigate to either game.

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
1:05 p.m. ET
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
7:08 p.m. ET

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

Pick
Red Sox F5 & ML
Book
bet365
Pitchers
Robbie Ray vs. Martin Perez
First Pitch
1:05 p.m. ET

Sean Zerillo: I had to recheck this projection multiple times, since I bet against Martin Perez quite heavily last time out against Framber Valdez and the Astros.

Splits are partially to blame; Houston has the No. 1 offense against left-handed pitching in 2021 (126 wRC+) while the Blue Jays rank closer to league average (102 wRC+, 13th). But the Red Sox have actually been below average against southpaw, offensively (96 wRC+, 20th), so it’s not like they have an advantage in terms of offensive splits.

Robbie Ray has had a resurgent season (3.92 xERA, 3.04 xFIP, 3.05 SIERA), but he’s also been a bit lucky, with a 92% strand rate (75.7% career) and a .280 BABIP (.311 career).

If the Red Sox can keep this game tight until it gets to the bullpens, I would give them the advantage in the late innings. They have a fresh bullpen, while the Blue Jays have used each of Anthony Castro, Rafael Dolis and Tim Mayza at least three times in the past five days.

I projected the Red Sox at 49.5% for the first five innings (F5) and at 52% for the full game on Sunday. I would bet their F5 line down to +115, and would place a larger bet on their full game line, down to +105.


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St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

Pick
Cubs ML
Book
PointsBet
Pitchers
Carlos Martinez vs. Zach Davies
First Pitch
7:08 p.m. ET

Jeff Hicks: The Chicago Cubs have lost two series since May, three if you count their series that bled into May from April. Not only have they been scoring, but their pitching has gone from questionable to respectable.

Kyle Hendricks showed Saturday night that he’s back, and Zach Davies gets to show he’s been improved Sunday. He is better pitching at home than on the road, with an ERA differential of 1.88 and OPS drop of .155 to .676. As long as Davies can get through six, the Cubs bullpen can take over from there.

Only two teams have a better reliever WAR than the Cubs, and no team has a better strikeout percentage. As the Cubs rotation pitches deeper into games, the better this reliever corps will be; they have thrown 251 1/3 innings so far in 2021 and have still been nails.

The Cardinals are floundering and are sending Carlos Martinez to the mound one day after Jon Gant flopped, leading to extended use of the team’s bullpen. Martinez has transformed into a contact-based pitcher and has had issues stranding baserunners (nearly 46% have scored). The Cubs have scored 15 runs so far in two games this series, their first with 100% capacity at home. It won’t get better for St. Louis tonight.


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