MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: 3 Best Bets, Including Pirates vs. Mets & Angels vs. Mariners (Friday, July 9)
John McCoy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani.
- The weekend is officially upon us, and we have plenty of baseball to bet before the All-Star break.
- Our staff picked out three games as their best bets for Friday's slate, including Pirates vs. Mets, Twins vs. Tigers, and Angels vs. Mariners.
- Check out all three breakdowns below for odds and picks on the games.
The workweek is over, which means one thing: It’s time to bet some baseball.
Our staff picked out three best bets for Friday’s slate, starting with Pirates vs. Mets at 7:10 p.m. ET, rolling into an AL Central matchup between the Tigers and Twins, and wrapping up with Angels vs. Mariners at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Check out all three picks and breakdowns below, and use the table below to navigate to any game on the docket.
MLB Odds & Picks
Pirates vs. Mets
Kenny Ducey: This is a bet I liked on Thursday and will be firing up again today with the game pushed back a day due to rain in New York.
Taijuan Walker has turned in a pretty incredible season so far considering the many downs of his career after entering the league as a highly-touted prospect.
He enters with a 2.44 ERA and has done well to remain in the twos after his blistering hot start to the season. His strikeout rate is back up all the way to nearly 26%, and I like him to shut down a Pirates team that, while weak all year, has improved lately. Walker’s excellent swing-and-miss stuff should take away some of the luster of the Pirates, who have been very contact-oriented.
We also have the Mets’ offense, which has been absolutely dreadful. Their .702 OPS in July ranks in the bottom third of the league, and their strikeout rate has been an alarming 27%, which follows a trend we’ve seen all season.
While Jeff McNeil has started to feel it, Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto continue to struggle. I like JT Brubaker against most lineups but feel especially good about him in this sport. He generates a lot of swings and misses and doesn’t really walk batters, so I think baserunners will come at a premium in this game.
Tigers vs. Twins
Collin Wilson: Rookie Matt Manning started off hot for the Tigers in his debut against the Cardinals and Angels.
After more than 10 innings and just four earned runs, Manning found a way to locate his fastball that he throws 64% of the time. Teams that struggle to hit the four-seamer will struggle with Manning, but that is certainly not Minnesota.
The Twins are +22 cumulative in run value against four-seam fastballs. Manning will be forced to go to his slider, a pitch he has posted a negative value.
The Twins’ bats also rank third in ISO against right-handed pitching.
The opposite is in effect for Maeda, who throws a combination of slider and splitter. The Tigers have posted a negative run value against those pitches this season.
Angels vs. Mariners
Brad Cunningham: Alex Cobb has seemingly found the fountain of youth because he’s been awesome through his first 12 starts of the season, posting a 3.82 xERA and 2.78 xFIP — the best marks of his career.
The reason for this is because his control has been on point, as his K/9 rate is at 10.67, his BB/9 rate is at 2.67, and his HR/9 rate is at 0.45. His main two secondary pitches of split-finger and curveball have been his best two pitches. Both are allowing an xwOBA under .300 and have a whiff rate over 30%.
The Mariners lineup has struggled all season against right-handed pitching, as they have only a .294 wOBA, which ranks 26th in Major League Baseball.
Marco Gonzales, meanwhile, has been really bad this season, posting a Major League-worst 8.50 xERA while giving up a whopping 13 home runs in his 10 starts.
None of the pitches in his arsenal have been effective; every pitch besides his changeup allows an xwOBA over .400.
His struggles are likely going to continue tonight because the Angels absolutely crush lefties, as they have the third-best wOBA at .335 and they’ve hit the second-most home runs off of left-handed pitching.