The Seattle Mariners host the New York Yankees on May 13, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ROOT Sports NW.
After putting up another magnificent showing at the dish on Monday, will the Yankees face some resistance against a stronger Mariners pitcher?
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Mariners Prediction
- Yankees vs Mariners picks: Under 7.5 (Play to Under 7)
My Yankees vs Mariners best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mariners Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7.5 105o / -125u | -140 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 7.5 105o / -125u | +115 |
Yankees vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Bryan Woo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 1.05/3.38 | ERA /xERA | 3.25/2.86 |
| 2.92/3.56 | FIP / xFIP | 2.91/3.49 |
| 0.91 | WHIP | 0.92 |
| 17.3% | K-BB% | 20.7% |
| 50.7% | GB% | 35.5% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 102 | Location+ | 111- |
Kenny Ducey’s Yankees vs Mariners Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Yankees Are Red Hot, But Issues Exist
There's no other way to put it, the Yankees are firing on all cylinders at the moment. They've scored seven or more runs in four straight contests, taking five of their last six, and will now send their best pitcher to the hill as they look to put away a very capable Mariners team.
Max Fried has been masterful this season, even if ERA evaluators say he hasn't quite pitched to his other-worldly 1.05 ERA. His rate of contact on the ground has dropped a hair, but as a predominantly ground-ball pitcher, he'll be running expected numbers somewhat close to the league average.
Meanwhile, he's cut down his walk rate to 5.3%, and his strikeout rate hasn't really suffered, at just six points lower than his 2024 mark.
There are a couple of issues to take note of with Fried. The first would be his .395 Expected Slugging Percentage and 7.5% barrel rate, which have both jumped an alarming amount. No, he's not running bad numbers in each category, but this is where we've seen the lefty be most human.
He's also pitching to ground balls behind an infield defense that ranks 23rd in Outs Above Average and currently has a rotating cast of characters at second and third base due to injuries.
New York is set to welcome back DJ LeMahieu in the wake of Oswaldo Cabrera's scary-looking injury on Monday night.
Still, at his age, there's no guarantee he'll even be able to sustain a mediocre level defensively — and he carries with him a good bit of liability on offense.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Seattle to Struggle Against Top LHP
Like every good Mariners starter, Bryan Woo has been strategically designed to pitch in Seattle. He's running an extremely low 35.5% ground-ball rate, pitching primarily to fly balls.
His fly-ball rate is likely set to take a hike at some point due to his unsustainable 12.4% pop-up rate. The league average is around 7% and his career average is at 8.1%, so some of those will be traded in for some air balls that travel somewhat further.
That's no issue in Seattle, where fly balls go to die. At home this season, he's running a 1.38 ERA in two starts, as opposed to a 4.02 ERA on the road.
Aside from the good things happening on contact, Woo has also recovered a bit of his strikeout prowess, with a 25.3% punch-out rate, which is quickly approaching a career-high.
His walk rate continues to be delightful at 4.6% this season.
You'll be hard-pressed to hit for power against Woo, and now it would seem contact is once again at a premium.
Seattle is currently tearing it up at the dish, but it enters the day ranked 10th in wRC+ to lefties, as opposed to second against righties.
Its strikeout rate is a stunning five points higher against the former, and versus southpaws, it's running an Isolated Power that's 10 points lower next to a slightly depressed walk rate.
The Mariners have continued to impress when it comes to making contact, striking out in just 19.1% of their plate appearances in the last two weeks, but their power numbers have fallen along with their walk rate.
Now, against an all-league lefty, we could see a further decline in what's made this team so good.
Yankees vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's hard to be hot on the Mariners here against a lefty, as they've struggled against them. Recent trends are pointing to further diminishing returns in two key areas: walks and home runs.
Fried has struggled to limit power, but now he'll step into a friendly pitching environment against a team that hasn't only struggled to drive the ball in recent weeks but hasn't done a whole lot of it against left-handers.
On the flip side, the Yankees possess an insane .274 ISO in the last two weeks but will have to contend with a master at limiting damage in Woo. He's a stalwart when it comes to limiting walks — something which has driven this offense — and he'll be worlds better than Emerson Hancock, who was lit up on Monday.
Hancock wouldn't be in the rotation if it weren't for injuries, and he turned in an awful showing in the opening game of this series.
I expect Woo to bring the Yankees back down to Earth while Seattle's struggles against left-handers persist.
The total is pretty low, but I'll still go under.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
Moneyline
The sharp money is hitting the Mariners here, and if I were to take a side, it would certainly be theirs. Yes, they've struggled to hit for power against lefties, but with Fried allowing more contact than his opponent and Seattle still putting up runs in recent games, the home team could find a way here.
Run Line (Spread)
Seattle has failed to cover the run line in four straight games and is just 7-7 against the spread as underdogs this season. The Yankees are 23-12 to the run line as favorites.
Over/Under
While 64% of the bets and 66% of the money is on the over, we've tracked sharp money hitting the under here.
Neither team has cashed the under in their last four games.
