MLB Sharp Betting Pick (Friday, Aug. 14): Smart Money Hitting Pirates vs. Reds Over/Under


Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Chad Kuhl

  • Bettors have rushed to bet the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline with Sonny Gray on the mound.
  • Cincinnati has garnered 80% of the moneyline bets in this game, but sharp action is more interested in the over/under odds.
  • Read on for updated odds, line movement, and betting market analysis for Friday night's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Reds.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Pirates Odds +170 [BET NOW]
Reds Odds -200 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 8.5 (u-118) [BET NOW]
First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET 

With Sonny Gray taking on Chad Kuhl Friday night, the Reds are understandably pretty heavy favorites over the 4-13 Pirates. And even with their lofty price, they’ve been one of the most popular bets on tonight’s slate, drawing 80% of moneyline tickets.

But while the majority of bettors have been flocking to back Cincy, the sharper ones have been looking elsewhere for value in this matchup.

Pirates vs. Reds Sharp Betting Pick

The over/under for this game opened at 9, and like the moneyline, it hasn’t presented a difficult decision for the betting public. About two-thirds of over/under bets have landed on the over, which isn’t too surprising given that bettors tend to prefer rooting for offense over pitching.

What is a bit surprising, though, is that the 65% of bets that have hit the over have accounted for only 25% of actual money landing on the total. In other words, the bigger bets — much bigger ones in this case — have been coming from those on the under. And who is likely making those big bets on a regular season NL Central total?

You guessed it — sharps.

Per Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action — there have been five cases of smart money hitting the under since this number opened.

As a result, this total no longer sits at 9. It’s dropped to 8.5 across the market, and as of the early afternoon the under has even been juiced up to -118 at Parx.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 8.5) [Bet the under at +102 with a 20% profit boost at Parx]

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