The Cleveland Guardians (23-16) host the Philadelphia Phillies (23-16) for Sunday Night Baseball on May 11, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Phillies will look to win a fifth consecutive series when they play the rubber match of their series versus the Guardians on Sunday evening. Zack Wheeler (3.35 ERA, 51 IP) will look to build on what has been a tremendous start to the season in a matchup against Luis L. Ortiz (5.30 ERA, 37 1/3 IP).
Find my Phillies vs Guardians prediction and Sunday Night Baseball best bet below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Phillies vs Guardians Prediction & Pick for Sunday Night Baseball
- Phillies vs Guardians pick: Zack Wheeler to Record a Win -115 (DraftKings, Play to -120)
My Phillies vs Guardians best bet for Sunday is Zack Wheeler to record a win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Guardians Odds, Over/Under, Spread
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -185 |
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +150 |
- Phillies vs Guardians Moneyline: Phillies -185, Guardians +150
- Phillies vs Guardians Total: 7.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Phillies vs Guardians Spread: Phillies -1.5 (-110), Guardians +1.5 (-110)
- Phillies vs Guardians Best Bet: Zack Wheel to Record Win
Phillies vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Stat | RHP Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.35 / 2.36 | ERA /xERA | 5.30 / 5.09 |
| 3.22 / 2.51 | FIP / xFIP | 4.24 / 4.09 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | 1.42 |
| 28.8% | K-BB% | 12.7% |
| 38.3% | GB% | 43.4% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 108 | Location+ | 94 |
Phillies vs Guardians Preview, Sunday Night Baseball Prediction
Phillies Betting Insights
Wheeler is currently priced as the fourth favorite to win the NL Cy Young at +900 entering Sunday's slate of play, as he holds a 3.35 ERA and has already given the Phillies 51 innings of work.
Chances are that after today's matchup, he will lead the MLB in innings pitched this season, and he is averaging nearly 19 outs per game and has recorded at least 16 outs in every start.
If Wheeler can stay healthy and continue to handle such a hefty workload, his underlying metrics suggest he will likely be in the Cy Young conversation at the end of the year. He holds an xERA of 2.35 and an xFIP of 2.51. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate and the 90th percentile in walk rate.
Wheeler has displayed excellent command of his quality six-pitch mix and holds a Stuff+ rating of 110 and a Pitching+ rating of 118 this season.
The Phillies have enjoyed playing with a healthy roster recently, as Jose Ruiz is currently the only player on the IL. They have hit to a wRC+ of 119 and hold an OPS of .790 over the last 14 days. They hold a wRC+ of 107 versus right-handed pitching this season, and rank first with a BB/K ratio of 0.56.
Guardians Betting Insights
It's been a tumultuous start to the season for Ortiz, who's had a tough time stringing quality starts together and holds an ERA of 5.30 across 37 1/3 innings. He's stranded only 65.2% of base-runners and could see some positive regression in that area. Still, his underlying profile suggests he is likely to continue offering well below average results this season.
Ortiz has pitched to an xERA of 5.09 and holds an xFIP of 4.09. His pitch metrics are down compared to last season, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 98 and a Pitching+ rating of 93. He's remained comparably ineffective in his recent outings, as over the last four starts, he holds a Pitching+ rating of 89 and an ERA of 4.71.
The Guardians are suffering from a fairly significant injury situation. They are without numerous key pitchers and center fielder Lane Thomas.
The Guardians have been in fairly average form offensively of late, as they hold a wRC+ of 103 over the last 14 days. They also carry a wRC+ of 106 versus right-handed pitching this season, which is an improvement compared to the previous season's mark of 96.
Phillies vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
Wheeler should have an excellent chance of leaving this matchup in line for his fourth win of the season. He features one of the most impressive underlying profiles of any starter in baseball right now and should fare well versus a fairly average Guardians lineup in this game.
Based on his work last season with the Pittsburgh Pirates, it's reasonable to believe that Ortiz's results could improve to some extent, but it does seem likely that he will be a below-average starter the rest of the way. He will be trying to handle a proven Phillies lineup that is in excellent form, and Wheeler should have a great chance to get some run support early in this matchup.
-115 is a low number for any pitcher to record a win, but in this particular matchup, Wheeler seems to have a better chance of earning a win than that number suggests.
Pick: Zack Wheeler to Record a Win -115 (DraftKings, Play to -120)
Moneyline
Backing the Phillies to win the game at -180 looks to be a reasonable option, but I believe there is more value in taking the better price to back Wheeler recording a win.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Phillies to cover the run line at +100 looks to provide some value and would be my favorite bet on the run line.
Over/Under
A total of 7.5 looks accurate given this starting pitching matchup.
Phillies vs Guardians Betting Trends
Phillies Trends
- Phillies are 10-10 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Phillies' last 5 games
- Phillies hitters are slugging .700 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .515
Guardians Trends
- Guardians are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Guardians' 18 last games at home
- The Guardians are batting .455 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .287
Phillies vs Guardians Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Sunday, May 11 |
| Time: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN |
