MLB Tuesday Weather: Windy Conditions at Wrigley for Alzolay’s First Career Start

MLB Tuesday Weather: Windy Conditions at Wrigley for Alzolay’s First Career Start article feature image
Credit:

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ronald Acuna Jr.

  • Using the Action Network's betting tools, we've analyzed how weather is impacting the Braves-Cubs game.

Braves (M. Fried) at Cubs (A. Alzolay)

8:05 p.m. ET

Weather Rating: 65

Wrigley + wind = wins. It’s not that simple … well, actually it practically is that simple. If you bet the over/under based on what the wind was doing for every game in Wrigley’s history, you’d have way more wins than losses.

Tonight, the wind is blowing out! Pretty hard, too, with anemometers reading 12-15 mph. As a result, the over/under opened at a lofty 11.5 with the young Braves southpaw Max Fried taking on Cubs rookie Adbert Alzolay (most intriguing name in baseball).

I imagine the over/under will go up like it did yesterday, when the wind was blowing out at less than 10 mph. After opening at 10.5, it shot up to 12 and even 12.5 at some books behind 83% of the cash money. Ironically, anyone who took the over after it moved up to 11.5 and 12 lost, as only 11 runs were scored.

In fact, why don’t I do a bit of number analysis while we are on the subject? Here’s how the over has done in wind-out games at each of these following ranges and how it’s done based on the line movement per Bet Labs:

  • 9 or lower: 32-19-1 (62.7%)
  • 9.5-10.5: 31-16-2 (66.0%)
  • 11 or higher: 15-12-1 (55.6%)
  • Total goes down: 17-13-1 (56.7%)
  • Total stays the same or goes up 0.5: 54.29-2 (65.1%)
  • Total goes up 1 or more: 7-5-1 (58.3%)

Unlike wind-in unders at Wrigley, which see significantly diminished returns to the point that they’re unprofitable at totals of 7 or less, wind-out overs actually still do pretty well at high numbers and after they’ve moved a good deal.

Obviously, the numbers show that you want to be getting lower numbers and the best of the number, as is always the case, but it’s not the end of the world if you don’t. The world will literally end if you take a bad number with wind-in unders.

As for how these specific pitchers will be impacted by the conditions, the Braves should have the advantage, as Alzolay has allowed a pretty high percentage of fly balls throughout the minors. Fried, on the other hand, has the fifth-highest ground ball rate in the league this year. Though, like many pitchers this year, he has allowed a high percentage of his fly balls to go over the fence (20.4%, fourth-highest).

Both teams’ hitters rank towards the bottom in fly-ball rate, with the Braves ranking 24th and the Cubs at 25th.