World Series Game 2 Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals vs. Astros Over/Under

We have ourselves an upset brewing! Gerrit Cole shockingly lost a game for the first time in a gnome's age, and the Nationals have taken an early 1-0 lead over the juggernaut Astros.

The Nats will have another uphill battle tonight against Justin Verlander, as Stephen Strasburg and Co. are still between +150 and +160 around the market. Sharp bettors, however, have the Game 2 over/under in their sights …

Yesterday's game featured an over/under that opened at 7 and dropped to 6.5. It's a low total for 2019, but hey, it's Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer, what do you expect?

Odds as of Wednesday at 11 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Let's look at how the pros see Nationals vs. Astros Game 2 playing out.

Nationals vs. Astros Game 2 Sharp Report

Justin Verlander vs. Stephen Strasburg is somewhat of a pitcher's duel in its own right. Both gents will finish toward the top of the Cy Young voting in their respective leagues, but Verlander has not been himself this postseason.

In his past three starts, he's allowed 10 runs in 17.1 innings — good for a 5.19 ERA. Certainly not Verlander-esque. Strasburg's postseason has been much better, posting a 1.64 ERA over 22 innings.

It appears as if sharp bettors believe Strasburg's success will continue, while Verlander will come back to earth and be his normal dominant self.

After opening at 7.5, pros have hit the under hard, causing it to fall to 7. Considering the big difference between 7 and 6.5, I doubt it will drop another half-run, but it's not impossible.

We've tracked two steam moves on the under, causing a market-wide move from 7.5 to 7.

At the time of the second move (today at 10:19 a.m. ET), the under was getting 46% of the bets, but 73% of the money. Since then, the cash has started to even out, which is a sign that buyback on the over is coming.

If you plan on taking the over, it's probably smarter to play it now as a move back to 7.5 is more likely than a drop to 6.5.

Historically, overs have smashed in World Series games with low totals. Since 2005, games with closing totals between 5.5 and 7 have an over record of 23-11-1, cashing by an average margin of 2.26 runs per Bet Labs.