The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on September 14, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Yankees and Red Sox will play their final regular-season matchup of the season Sunday evening, with Will Warren (147 IP, 4.22 ERA) set to face off against Garrett Crochet (2.57 ERA, 185 and 1/3 IP).
The Yankees will have an opportunity to earn a series sweep in this matchup, yet are still just 4-8 versus the Red Sox this season.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
- Yankees vs Red Sox pick: Over 7.5 Total Runs (-118 | Play to -125)
My Yankees vs Red Sox best bet is Over 7.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +125 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -150 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Will Warren (NYY) | Stat | LHP Garrett Crochet |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 15-5 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.4 |
| 4.22 / 4.47 | ERA / xERA | 2.57 / 3.01 |
| 3.91 / 3.86 | FIP / xFIP | 2.82 / 2.71 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.05 |
| 15.2 | K-BB% | 25.2 |
| 43.0 | GB% | 47.9 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 116 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Yankees vs Red Sox Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Best Offense in MLB
The Yankees will be facing off against Crochet for the fourth time this season in this matchup. Crochet has pitched to an ERA of 2.95 in his previous three starts versus the Yankees, including a dominant seven-inning performance in the most recent on August 23rd, finishing with 11 strikeouts.
Though Crochet has been highly effective in two of his three matchups versus the Yankees this season, they have been one of the most productive teams in the league versus left-handed pitching recently. Since August 1st, New York ranks third in baseball with a wRC+ of 127 versus lefties and holds the highest slug rate in the league during that span.
Dating back to last year's World Series, the Yankees' struggles to play fundamentally strong baseball have drawn plenty of criticism, yet they have leaned on their tremendous power-hitting to earn a record of 83-65. New York leads the AL by a wide margin with 770 runs scored this season and ranks first in baseball with 250 home runs.
Warren was ineffective in his most recent matchup versus Crochet and the Red Sox on August 23rd, allowing seven hits and five earned runs while recording only 12 outs. While he struggled in his previous matchup versus Boston, Warren has been in good form recently, pitching to an ERA of 3.48 across his last ten starts.
His recent underlying metrics are less convincing, however, as across those ten starts, he holds an xFIP of 4.37 and allowed an xBA of .270. He's been hard-hit 45% of the time in that span and owns a strikeout minus walk rate of 13.2%.
The Yankees bullpen has continued to fail to live up to its lofty expectations recently, as over the last 30 days, NY relievers own a 29th-ranked ERA of 5.79 and have allowed the fifth-highest WHIP in baseball.
In high-leverage situations, they have also struggled recently, pitching to an ERA of 5.63.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Productive Against Right-Handers
The Red Sox's current three-game losing skid has essentially ended any hopes of stealing the AL East, as they now trail the Toronto Blue Jays by 5.5 games with only 13 left in the season. Over the last two weeks, they have played to a record of 6-6 but have remained fairly strong offensively with a wRC+ of 102 despite playing without Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu.
Over the last month of play, the Red Sox hold a wRC+ of 105 versus right-handed pitching and rank 11th in weighted on-base average.
Garrett Crochet's level of play has dropped off to some extent in the second half, though he has still pitched at a very high level.
Since the All-Star break, Crochet has an ERA of 3.38 across 58 innings of work, has been hard-hit 41% of the time, and allowed an xBA of .234. His pitch metrics have remained elite, as he holds a Stuff+ of 120 and a Pitching+ of 117 in that span.
Over the last three seasons, Fenway Park has played as the second most favorable ballpark for run creation and should play fairly true in tonight's matchup, with the forecast expecting relatively still conditions and 70-degree temperatures.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
While it is intimidating to bet the over in a game involving Crochet, a total of 7.5 for this matchup at Fenway still appears to be too low.
The Yankees have been crushing left-handed pitching over the last month of play and could benefit from getting another look at Crochet in a short time frame.
While Warren has also been in strong form recently, he has outperformed his underlying metrics by a notable margin and is backed by a bullpen that continues to struggle mightily.
At -118, there looks to be value betting this game to feature over 7.5 total runs, and I would bet it down to -125.
Pick: Over 7.5 Total Runs (-118 | Play to -125)
Moneyline
There does not appear to be value in betting either side to win this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not interested in the run line for this game.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting the over is my favorite play.
Yankees vs Red Sox Betting Trends
