We have a full 15-game MLB slate for Sunday, September 14. The postseason is getting closer, which means there are significant implications for several of today's games.
Additionally, our betting experts and systems have found excellent value in five of those games, so continue reading for today's MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 11:35 a.m. | |
  | 1:37 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Wright's Pirates vs Nationals Best Bet: Low Workload for Burrows
This is a fade of Mike Burrows' workload. THE BAT X has the Pirates starter projected for 71 pitches and 12.8 outs. RotoGrinders has him for 77 pitches and 14.3 outs. I see both of those projections as being his ceiling.
Braxton Ashcraft has tag-teamed the past two games with Burrows. Ashcraft got the start on September 3 against the Dodgers, tossing three innings on 71 pitches. Burrows followed with three innings on 45 pitches.
It was Burrows who started on September 9 against the Orioles, going four innings on 56 pitches. Ashcraft followed with three innings on 63 pitches. It's close to an even split between these young starters, and I wouldn't expect either to top four innings today.
Washington is a solid matchup, ranking ninth in K% vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days. The top half of the Nats lineup makes plenty of contact, though. James Wood stands out as the only vulnerable strikeout bat up top.
Since he's pitching first today, Burrows might only face the high-strikeout bats at the bottom of the lineup once!
Pick: Mike Burrows Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+107)
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Derek Carty's Orioles vs Blue Jays: Value on This HR Prop
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 0.22 home runs for Orioles outfielder Tyler O'Neill.
Oddsmakers are implying 0.17 home runs, so I believe there is value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 19% of the time, resulting in a 30% ROI with an expected value of $29.67 (based on a $100 wager).
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Tyler O'Neill Home Run (+512)
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Doug Ziefel's Dodgers vs Giants Best Bet: Short Leash for Ray
By Doug Ziefel
Over his last seven starts, Robbie Ray holds a 5.02 ERA, a 4.32 WHIP, and his CSW is well below average at 25.2%. He is ripe for the Dodgers to pick on as they've hit lefties well all year long.
Meanwhile, Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow is one of the game's best strikeout artists. He is a bad matchup for a Giants team that has whiffed more often over the last month.
While this matchup looks to be in favor of the Dodgers, the bullpens are a complete question mark on both sides. However, when looking at the starters, it's clear Ray is in a tough spot and is far from his best form.
Fade Ray, as the Dodgers should create traffic against him early. Again, the team's circumstances are shortening his leash, especially with available arms in the bullpen that can provide length.
Pick: Robbie Ray Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125)
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PRO's Rockies vs Padres Best Bet: Fade Marquez' Strikeouts
By Action PRO
PRO projects Rockies starter German Marquez with 3.02 strikeouts today, which represents a great 15.5% edge against the market.
Go with the under and fade the right-hander against the Padres this afternoon.
Pick: German Marquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)
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Bet Labs' Yankees vs Red Sox Best Bet: System Recommends the Under
By Bet Labs
The Silent Sharp Unders system targets regular-season MLB games where both teams are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close.
These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions, and closing totals in a common scoring range, such as this Sunday Night Baseball between the Yankees and Red Sox.
Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under, likely due to matchup specifics, pitching, or pace factors.
By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on win streaks and not totals — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
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