The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on September 13, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NESN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Yankees vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
- Yankees vs Red Sox picks: Yankees F5 Team Total Over 2.5 +114 (DraftKings)
My Yankees vs Red Sox best bet is the Yankees team total over in the first five. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -140 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +120 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (NYY) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-5 | W-L | 11-6 |
| 4.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 3.02 / 3.62 | ERA /xERA | 3.12 / 4.34 |
| 3.20 / 3.55 | FIP / xFIP | 4.04 / 4.26 |
| 1.10 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 16.2% | K-BB% | 9.9% |
| 52.1% | GB% | 49.1% |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 102 | Location+ | 102 |
Doug Ziefel’s Yankees vs Red Sox Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The Yankees came out and took Game 1 of this crucial series as the bats were alive early and the pitching was stellar. Both of those themes are expected to continue this afternoon as they'll send Max Fried to the mound.
Fried has been dynamite this season as he comes in with a 16-5 record, holding a 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He faces a Boston lineup that has hit lefties well of late, but their season-long numbers suggest regression is coming.
At the plate, New York should find early success against Brayan Bello. Bello does not miss many bats, and while he's done a good job of generating soft contact this season, soft contact is not something you see often from this Yankees lineup.
If they are putting the ball in play often, there will be runs on the board.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
As for the Red Sox, they were held quiet yesterday by Luis Gil and a trio of the Yankees' high-leverage arms out of the pen. While facing the Yankees' bullpen may not be as much of a concern today, the issue will be getting to those arms, as Max Fried will be a tough bounce.
Fried is a rare breed in today's game, as every pitch he throws is in his favor and designed to get hitters out. His low first-pitch strike rate, combined with his low walk rate, indicates that he attempts to use hitters' aggression against them early in the count.
Like we went over yesterday, the Red Sox are going to oblige on pitches outside the zone, so look for Fried to work quickly as he receives early run support.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Yankees have a big edge on the mound in this matchup, and it's going to be evident early as Brayan Bello will be unable to avoid traffic on the basepaths the first time through.
Given how this Yankees lineup has surged against righties over the past month, they are bound to cash in.
Using some math, Bello's price to allow over 2.5 earned runs is -155, and his outs prop is set at 15.5. That means oddsmakers are expecting the Yankees to do the majority of their damage offensively in the first five.
Take the Yankees' first five over at a much better price.
Pick: Yankees F5 Team Total Over 2.5 +114 (DraftKings)
Moneyline
I would lean towards the Yankees.
Run Line (Spread)
No play on the run line.
Over/Under
The over has received plenty of market support.
Yankees vs Red Sox Betting Trends
