MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Nationals vs. Padres: Corbin & Paddack May Struggle (Wednesday, July 7)

MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction for Nationals vs. Padres: Corbin & Paddack May Struggle (Wednesday, July 7) article feature image
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Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Fernando Tatis Jr. watches a home run.

  • The Nationals and Padres meet for the third of a four-game set on Wednesday in San Diego.
  • Offense has been in order through the first two games of this series.
  • Can both sides continue doing damage against Patrick Corbin and Chris Paddack? Kenny Ducey breaks it down.

Nationals vs. Padres Odds

Nationals Odds +150
Padres Odds -185
Over/Under 8 (-110 / -110)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via BetMGM.

The penultimate series prior to the All-Star Break for the Padres and Nationals has not disappointed. There have been 23 runs scored between the two teams, and both games have been decided by three or fewer runs.

With two slightly better pitchers getting the ball here, could we see the scoring dissipate? Or does the matchup offer us the chance to take the over once again at a very reasonable price? Let’s take a look at the matchup.

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Offense Remains In Order For Nationals

The Nationals were red-hot, then the Dodgers came to town. The defending champions took all four games against Washington, slowing the great roll that it was on with relative ease. The offense fell by the wayside against stronger pitchers, and it appeared that the Nats’ charge up the NL East standings was about to get just a bit more difficult.

Well, that all changed on Monday when the offense exploded for five runs off of Joe Musgrove through the first five innings. The Nationals have now scored 11 runs in the last two games, and are seventh in the run-scoring department over the past week. Despite crossing the plate so much, the Nats have hit just six homers, trading power for a .283 average. Over that span, they’re also just 22nd in hard-hit rate, but have a respectable 77% contact rate.

Davey Martinez will give the ball once again to Patrick Corbin, who has been in a real rut this year. He appeared to be coming through it with a 3.82 ERA in June, but he turned right back around and surrendered six runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Dodgers, who have a well-documented history of stinking it up against lefties. He’s allowed five home runs over his last three starts, and is probably fortunate that the loss to the Dodgers was his only blowup over that span.

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Paddack Will Try To Get By For Padres

The Padres are in a similar boat as the Nationals; they were red-hot, winning four series in a row with a couple of sweeps in there, but they have now dropped four of six games. Like Washington, too, San Diego has not lacked offense over the last week. It ranks eighth in runs scored, just one run behind the Nationals in seventh, and in this series the Padres have produced 12 runs.

So San Diego has hit lately, though lefties have given this team a bit of an issue. The Padres are just 18th in wRC+ to left-handed pitching. Still, they’re third in hard-hit rate this year, which should inspire some confidence against Corbin, who is the proud owner of an 8.7% barrel rate and who has those aforementioned issues with gopher balls.

Speaking of, Chris Paddack has only allowed 10 homers in 15 starts, but his hard-hit rate has been poor once again at 40%, and he’s allowed a similar rate of barrels (8.8%) to Corbin. With a strikeout rate that’s just above league average, there’s definitely the possibility of further damage, and against a team that makes so much contact, there may be some upward mobility for the Nationals yet.

Paddack has allowed eight earned runs over his last two starts, spanning 9 1/3 innings, and his form closely mirrors Corbin’s. He struggled out of the gate, but his form in April and May had inspired some hope until the struggles returned recently.

Nationals-Padres Pick

Both of these offenses have cooled off a bit over the last week, but the last two nights have seemed to awaken the bats just a bit. The form for both lineups could be returning, and I’m frankly shocked to see the total at this low of a number.

I realize that Corbin and Paddack have a track record of pitching well, and seemed to recover from early season stumbles, but I’m not totally sold that they’re back to being themselves, particularly now that they’ve struggled of late. Both have still been hammered even with good counting stats, and the signs point to another bad performance here.

The Padres’ affinity for hard-hit balls should spook Corbin, who’s been giving up home runs left and right, and Paddack’s love for giving up quality contact should help the Nationals be a bit more effective when they put bat to ball.

I see a lot of runs being scored here, and think this is the value play.

Pick: Over 8 (-110)

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