The Milwaukee Brewers host the Houston Astros on May 6, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SCHN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Astros vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Astros vs Brewers Prediction
- Astros vs Brewers picks: Astros ML (+105) | Play to -110
My Astros vs Brewers best bet is on Astros moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Brewers Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8 -110 / -110 | +105 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -198 | 8 -110 / -110 | -125 |
Astros vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Hayden Wesneski (HOU) | Stat | RHP Chad Patrick (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 1-3 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.86 / 4.20 | ERA /xERA | 2.87/3.82 |
| 4.53 / 3.41 | FIP / xFIP | 3.70/4.45 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 19.6 | K-BB% | 2.36% |
| 35 | GB% | 26.4% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 110 | Location+ | 99 |
Kenny Ducey’s Astros vs Brewers Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview: Wesneski Showing Good Signs
Much was expected out of Hayden Wesneski a couple of seasons ago. The former Yankees farmhand was ticketed for a big role in the Cubs' bullpen, but he struggled to find his footing before eventually bouncing around between a rotation and relief role.
Now a full-time starter in Houston, Wesneski has looked effective. Nothing jumps off the page, but he's maintained a cool 3.6% walk rate next to a slightly above-average 23.2% strikeout clip. He also pitches primarily to fly balls.
That's gone well enough so far, but his .476 Expected Slugging is positively bad ,as is his 9.9% barrel rate. Regression could set in, especially inside a park like Milwaukee's.
At the dish, Houston has found some life by hitting .274 in the past two weeks, but a microscopic 6.6% walk rate and a .320 BABIP wouldn't suggest this team is scorching hot.
It's also lost Yordan Alvarez to injury, which is only going to hurt a low .148 Isolated Power during that time.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Will Offense Become Steady?
Milwaukee has gone back into its shell offensively, just as it's been known to do. Over that same two-week span, it's hitting .242 with a poor 86 wRC+, erasing what was a positive start to the season.
It's still doing some good, sporting a 0.5 walk-to-strikeout ratio (which ranks seventh), but there's little damage being done on contact with a very meek .086 ISO.
It's going to be an adventure for this team at the dish, and it may be an adventure with Chad Patrick on the hill as well. He's a fellow fly-ball arm like Wesneski who's rocking a poor .262 Expected Batting Average, but he's kept his xSLG to .414, which isn't good — but it's better than his counterpart.
Patrick profiles as a very average strikeout and walk pitcher who's been able to come into this one with an acceptable 3.82 xERA and 2.87 FIP. But it's weighed by an unsustainable pop-up rate over 14%.
Houston does pop up a lot, but at 11.6% over the past week, you'd expect this number to regress — even if it's a slow burn.
Astros vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
This should be a very favorable matchup for Wesneski against a Brewers team that lacks power and ranks just 26th in OPS against fly-ball pitchers.
Milwaukee isn't going to be afforded many walks against the right-hander like it's used to, and it's hitting for no power, which would really throw cold water on its prospects here.
On the flip side, Houston is sitting eighth in OPS against fly-ball pitchers, and even though its power will deteriorate a bit without Alvarez, it has a hot-hitting Zach Dezenzo to help out, along with some continued production atop the order from its key bats.
Patrick is due for some regression with his high pop-up rate, and in a battle of two fly-ball arms, you'd have to favor the Astros — especially in a hitter's park.
Pick: Astros ML (+105)
Moneyline
I'm taking the Astros on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't have a play on the run line.
Over/Under
I don't have a play on the total.
