The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 6, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSSUN.
The Rays and Phillies will begin a three-game interleague series Tuesday evening when Zack Wheeler takes on Drew Rasmussen.
The Rays are fresh off an impressive series win at Yankee Stadium over the weekend and are 6-4 over the last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Phillies sit three games back of the New York Mets in the NL East, with a record of 6-4 over their last 10.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Rays Prediction
- Phillies vs Rays picks: Under 8 (-115 | Play to -125)
My Phillies vs Rays best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Rays Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -105o / -115u | -120 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -105o / -115u | +100 |
Phillies vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Stat | RHP Drew Rasmussen (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.48/2.48 | ERA /xERA | 2.64/3.20 |
| 3.29/2.64 | FIP / xFIP | 2.74/3.19 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 0.98 |
| 27.6 | K-BB% | 19.5 |
| 36.2 | GB% | 45.6 |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 105 | Location+ | 105 |
Nick Martin’s Phillies vs Rays Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Wheeler Making Strong Push for Cy Young
Wheeler enters this matchup priced as the fifth favorite to win the NL Cy Young at +1200, just ahead of teammates Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo, who will pitch the final two games of this series.
Wheeler will likely need some of the true favorites to struggle in order to hang around in the Cy Young race, but his proven ability to pitch close to 200 innings — coupled with his excellent underlying results — suggests that he has some chance.
Wheeler has already worked 44 2/3 innings and on average, he's recorded 18.8 outs per game.
In what's already become a fairly significant sample of work, Wheeler holds a 2.48 xERA and 2.64 xFIP. His K-BB% of 27.6 is up significantly compared to last year, and he's been hard-hit just 36.8% of the time.
Pitch metrics suggest it's no surprise batters are having a hard time squaring up Wheeler, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 111 and a Pitching+ rating of 116, which are both year-over-year improvements.
The Phillies have enjoyed playing at close to full health this season and enter this series with no position players on the IL. They've hit to a wRC+ of 105 versus right-handed pitching in 2025 after finishing the 2024 season with a wRC+ of 105 versus righties.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview: Look to Keep Pace Despite Key Absences
While the Phillies will fancy their chances in any matchup with Wheeler on the mound right now, Rasmussen has been comparably dominant in his own right. He holds a 2.64 ERA across 30 2/3 innings of work and an xERA of 3.21 with an xFIP of 3.19.
Rasmussen's pitch metrics are down compared to last season, but they're still significantly better than the league average. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 112 and a Pitching+ rating of 111.
The Rays' bullpen has been rock-solid once again this season, as it holds an ERA of 2.97 across 115 innings this season, with an xFIP of 3.71.
While Rasmussen has been excellent this season, he's only managed more than 15 outs in one of his six outings.
Tampa Bay has gotten off to a strong start offensively versus righties, as it holds a wRC+ of 115 despite dealing with numerous injuries. Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Mangum, Josh Lowe and Richie Palacios are all on the IL currently, as well as some quality arms including Shane McClanahan.
George M. Steinbrenner Field has played as a hitter-friendly ballpark as expected so far this season, and the forecast calls for 86 degree temperatures with gentle winds blowing out to right-center field.
Phillies vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
Wheeler features one of the most convincing underlying profiles in the MLB right now and seems likely to be one of the better starters in the NL the rest of the way.
The Rays have been surprisingly strong offensively so far, but this could be a good matchup to expect them to come down to earth with Wheeler on the mound.
Rasmussen has overachieved his expected results (2.64 ERA), but he still appears likely to be an elite starter moving forward. He's backed by a high-quality bullpen, which is more noteworthy given that even in his better outings, he's only being asked to work five innings.
Under 8 runs at -115 looks like it holds value and is worth betting down to -125.
Pick: Under 8
Moneyline
My lean would be with the Phillies in terms of a side, as Wheeler does appear to be the superior starter by some margin.
Run Line (Spread)
There's no bet worth backing in terms of the run line.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting the game to feature under eight runs is my favorite play from this matchup.
