MLB Odds & Picks for Orioles vs. Red Sox: Bet Thursday’s Underdog (Aug. 11)

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds

After losing their last four games against the Royals and Braves, the last-place Red Sox have opportunities to make themselves feel a lot better this weekend. They start with a single game against the fourth-place Orioles on Thursday night followed by three against the slumping Yankees.

The first order of business will be taking out Baltimore, a challenge that has been an issue for Boston this year.

With a 5-3 lead in the season series, the Orioles look to continue their dominance by throwing Dean Kremer against Josh Winckowski. Will they be successful? Let's dig into the numbers below.

Can Kremer Limit Fly Ball Damage for the Orioles? 

The Orioles are on some kind of heater right now. They've taken seven of their last eight while closing out some close games along the way against Toronto and Pittsburgh. The offense has gotten it done with a 117 wRC+ in the last two weeks, but the strikeout, walk and power numbers are average. It's been on the bump where Baltimore has made its mark.

The Orioles have a 3.40 staff ERA in the last two weeks, which ranks sixth in baseball, and while you may assume their excellent bullpen deserves the credit, you'd be wrong. Baltimore's relievers are just 16th in ERA in that span, while the rotation owns the seventh-best mark.

That will put some pressure on the shoulders of Kremer tonight.  He has a 5.01 xERA and .275 xBA, which don't exactly inspire confidence. While the results have been solid for the most part, he did allow 10 earned runs on 15 hits over his last 9 2/3 innings of July. Kremer rebounded against the Pirates last time out, but that was the Pirates.

Kremer is a fly ball pitcher, watching a career-high 35.9% of batted balls head for the sky this season. That's almost 13% higher than league average, while his Ground Ball Rate is roughly 13% below average.

Will Winckowski Step Up for the Red Sox?

The Red Sox saw Winckowski pitch to a 3.13 ERA in seven Triple-A starts and had high hopes for him in this big-league rotation. But since the beginning of the season, the 24-year-old has really struggled.

Winckowski allowed four earned runs over three innings against these same Orioles in his first appearance in late May. He then was sent back down to the minors where he allowed five earned runs in his next 11 innings.

Now making his 11th big-league start, it could be put up or shut up time for Winckowski. To this point in 50 innings, he ranks in the bottom 1% of the league in Whiff Rate, bottom 5% in Strikeout Rate and bottom 8% in Hard-Hit Rate. In short, he's not missing bats, he's giving up lasers, and his 4.82 xERA indicates that nothing about his 4.68 ERA is a fluke.

Unfortunately, there's not a ton to write home about with the Boston offense, either. It is sporting a 90 wRC+ in the last two weeks with an abysmal 25.6% Strikeout Rate and low .158 ISO.

Orioles-Red Sox Pick

Winckowski is an extreme ground-ball pitcher up against an Orioles team that has done a ton of damage by making a lot of contact and finding soft spots in the defense lately. That's not exactly a dream matchup, while Kremer may find himself in one.

The Red Sox are 20th in Home Run-to-Fly Ball Ratio in the last two weeks and for the season rank 22nd in that department. Kremer should be the better pitcher here, and on top of that, the Orioles have been far better than Boston, even with a couple of nice performances against Braves pitching.

I have no choice here but to take the dogs on the moneyline at +108 on BetRivers.

Pick: Orioles Moneyline (+108)

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