MLB Player to Hit a Double Props

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Tue Nov 15

Player to hit a double is not the most popular MLB prop, but it's a fun one. It likely doesn't catch bettors' attention because it's hard to process off the top of your head how likely a player is to hit a double. You know an elite power hitter could be good for 40 home runs a year, or about one in every 4-5 games.

But doubles? We couldn't tell you how many doubles the league leader (Freddie Freeman, as of mid-September) had in 2022. The answer is 45.

So a player will always be priced at +200 or greater to hit a double because it's pretty rare. One in every three games is the absolute best you can do.

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MLB Doubles Prop Example

Most players will be priced at north of +350 to hit a double, and sportsbooks put a massive house edge on this market. At Caesars, Jonathan India is +297 to hit a double and -533 to not hit a double. That's good for a 109% implied probability, or a 9% house edge. The edge on NFL point spreads is a little north of 4%.

Let's use India as an example for the payouts. Again, he's listed at +297 to double and -533 to not double.

  • If you bet he will hit a double and he does: $10 wins $29.70
  • If you bet he won't hit a double and he doesn't: $53.30 wins $10

Unfortunately, most sportsbooks don't let you parlay players to not hit a double. They only allow you to parlay "yes" outcomes, which are often priced poorly compared to the true probability.

How Are Double Props Made?

Sportsbooks mainly take the number of games a player has doubled in, and convert that probability to odds (with a hefty house edge built in).

India has doubled in 14 of 79 games he's started in 2022. That's about 18% of the time. The +297 line implies he'll double about 25% of the time, so based on his season performance, it's not a great bet. Neither is the -533, since that implies he won't double in 84% of games.

There are other factors:

  • Spot in the batting order: Hitting first in the order will give you an extra plate appearance against a player hitting ninth, which increases the chance of doubling because you'll have 20% more at-bats, in all likelihood.
  • Player ability and profile: Some players double more often than others. Freeman has just 19 home runs this season but leads the league in doubles.
  • Opposing pitcher: The opposing pitcher will play a factor, too. Cubs outfielder Ian Happ was +475 against the Mets and pitcher Chris Bassitt to double, but is +650 against ace Jacob deGrom.