MLB Hit Props

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Tue Nov 15

MLB player hits have become a popular prop in recent years with the emergence of legal sportsbooks looking to create innovative-but-easy-to-understand markets.

Here's how the props will look in our comparison tool above:

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Most players will be listed at either 0.5 hits juiced to the over or 1.5 hits juiced to the under. That's because players will usually have either 0 or 1 hits in a single game. It's not like NBA points, where you can price is closer to the number of points even for bench players, since they can rack up at least a few baskets.

No MLB player will ever be more likely to get 2 hits than 0-1. So it will always be 0.5 or 1.5 hits, with juice priced accordingly.

MLB Hit Prop Example

Take this example from above. You have Mets slugger Pete Alonso, who is priced at 1.5 hits but the under is heavily juiced -- you need to risk around $2.50 for every $1 you want to win. If you think Alonso can get over 1.5 hits, you'll be rewarded with a +185 payout at DraftKings.

Compare that to Cubs infielder Zach McKinstry, whose hit line is listed at 0.5 hits but the over is heavily juiced. You have to risk $1.75 to win $1 at DraftKings.

But McKinstry needs just one hit, while Alonso needs two. It's much, much harder to get two hits. Alonso for example had the following hits this many times in 2022:

  • 0 hits: 51 games
  • 1 hits: 51 games
  • 2 hits: 27 games
  • 3 hits: 11 games
  • 4 hits: 1 games

That's 72% of the time. And DraftKings has his under at -255 -- which comes with an implied probability of 71.8%. The math checks out.

How Are MLB Hit Props Set?

There are three key factors that sportsbook odds providers use to price MLB hit props:

  • Player's spot in the batting order: Hitting first instead of eighth will give you an extra at-bat -- which is incredibly meaningful and increases your chance of getting one hit considerably.
  • Player ability: Of course, some players are better contact hitters than others. Luis Arraez of the Minnesota Twins hits for average but no power, so he's priced at -290 to get one hit against the Royals on Sept. 13. Gary Sanchez, who does not hit for average, is priced at -170 to get one hit.
  • Opposing pitcher: The opposition matters here, too. McKinstry was -175 at DraftKings against the Mets with Chris Bassitt on the mound, but just -120 with Jacob deGrom pitching.