# MLB Hit Props

Tue Nov 15

MLB player hits have become a popular prop in recent years with the emergence of legal sportsbooks looking to create innovative-but-easy-to-understand markets.

Here's how the props will look in our comparison tool above:

Most players will be listed at either 0.5 hits juiced to the over or 1.5 hits juiced to the under. That's because players will usually have either 0 or 1 hits in a single game. It's not like NBA points, where you can price is closer to the number of points even for bench players, since they can rack up at least a few baskets.

No MLB player will ever be more likely to get 2 hits than 0-1. So it will always be 0.5 or 1.5 hits, with juice priced accordingly.

### MLB Hit Prop Example

Take this example from above. You have Mets slugger Pete Alonso, who is priced at 1.5 hits but the under is heavily juiced -- you need to risk around \$2.50 for every \$1 you want to win. If you think Alonso can get over 1.5 hits, you'll be rewarded with a +185 payout at DraftKings.

Compare that to Cubs infielder Zach McKinstry, whose hit line is listed at 0.5 hits but the over is heavily juiced. You have to risk \$1.75 to win \$1 at DraftKings.

But McKinstry needs just one hit, while Alonso needs two. It's much, much harder to get two hits. Alonso for example had the following hits this many times in 2022:

• 0 hits: 51 games
• 1 hits: 51 games
• 2 hits: 27 games
• 3 hits: 11 games
• 4 hits: 1 games

That's 72% of the time. And DraftKings has his under at -255 -- which comes with an implied probability of 71.8%. The math checks out.

### How Are MLB Hit Props Set?

There are three key factors that sportsbook odds providers use to price MLB hit props:

• Player's spot in the batting order: Hitting first instead of eighth will give you an extra at-bat -- which is incredibly meaningful and increases your chance of getting one hit considerably.
• Player ability: Of course, some players are better contact hitters than others. Luis Arraez of the Minnesota Twins hits for average but no power, so he's priced at -290 to get one hit against the Royals on Sept. 13. Gary Sanchez, who does not hit for average, is priced at -170 to get one hit.
• Opposing pitcher: The opposition matters here, too. McKinstry was -175 at DraftKings against the Mets with Chris Bassitt on the mound, but just -120 with Jacob deGrom pitching.