For Tuesday, July 29, I'm on four MLB home run props: Riley Greene (against the Diamondbacks), Ketel Marte (against the Tigers), Mike Trout (against the Rangers), and Max Kepler (against the White Sox).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Tuesday.
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Tuesday, July 29
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 29
Riley Greene Home Run (+425)
vs. Diamondbacks (SP: RHP Brandon Pfaadt)
The weather in Detroit should be above average.
Even with the wind blowing in from right field at 8 mph, the temps are expected to be in the high 80s so the ball should fly well.
Tigers outfielder Riley Greene has a great matchup against the Diamondbacks' Brandon Pfaadt, who's given up 1.38 HR/9 to righties and 1.53 HR/9 to lefties in his career.
While I don't generally give too much weight to home/road splits, Pfaadt's are large enough to mention. In his career, he owns a 1.83 HR/9 on the road and a 1.07 HR/9 at home.
Greene is having a career year — with 25 homers thus far — and the underlying numbers show he's due for some positive regression.
I have the true odds here around +325.
Ketel Marte Home Run (+475)
at Tigers (SP: RHP Casey Mize)
Tigers starter Casey Mize has been a below-average matchup for lefty power this season, but he's due for some pretty massive negative regression (5.9% HR/FB rate and a 46.9% fly-ball rate).
Ketel Marte has been one of the best HR hitters in the league since last season, with 56 HRs in his last 211 games. He has a career-high barrel rate this season (16.1%), and given the good spot, I have the true odds here around +350.
Max Kepler Home Run (+450)
at White Sox (SP: RHP Jonathan Cannon)
Phillies outfielder Max Kepler hasn't hit many homers this season (11), but he's in a good spot tonight.
White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon has been a plus matchup for lefty power this season, giving up 1.50 HR/9. The weather in Chicago should be good for hitting, with temps in the high 80s and wind blowing out at 8 mph.
Kepler owns an 11% barrel rate, 45% fly-ball rate and 37% hard-contact rate — he's due for some positive regression.
I have the true odds here under +400.
Mike Trout Home Run (+330)
vs. Rangers (SP: LHP Patrick Corbin)
Angels star Mike Trout gets a matchup against Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin, who has been better at limiting righty power this season but is due for some negative regression.
Corbin grades out as a plus matchup for righty power.
Trout is having an off year, but the underlying power numbers have been good — he's still one of the best power hitters in the league.
I have the true odds here around +275.
