Sunday MLB Betting Picks, Predictions: 3 Ways to Play Packed Slate (May 1)
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Bard and Jose Iglesias
Sunday’s MLB slate may be a bit overshadowed by the NBA, but there are plenty of ways to find value on the slate.
Let’s dive in with three ways we’re playing it.
MLB Odds & Picks
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Nicholas Martin: The Red Sox powerful order has struggled to start off the 2022 campaign, but as you might expect, there are some underlying numbers that suggest better results are coming.
The Red Sox have the league’s 21st lowest BABIP at .275, but have the league’s 11th highest hard-hit rate at 40.5%, and it would make a lot of sense to see them breakthrough with a big output Sunday against Jordan Lyles.
The Red Sox hit righties very effectively throughout 2021, batting to a 109 wRC+ and a third best .336 wOBA, and face a righty here who has struggled to an xERA over 5.37 in each of the last three years.
A big offensive output could be important for Boston in this contest, as it will send Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has been crushed so far this season. Pivetta has struggled badly throughout 16 innings pitched this season, with an xERA of 9.06.
The Orioles do hold a 13th best hard-hit rate at 39.7%, and a middle of the pack XBA of .250. It may not get to Pivetta to the same extent as the other elite competition he has faced thus far this season, but Baltimore should contribute a fair number to this total themselves.
A total of 8 even is too low and I think we should be seeing 8.5 here at every book, and I would play 8 to -135.
Cubs vs. Brewers
Tony Sartori: We have the third and final game of this NL Central series between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers. This is the sixth meeting between these two teams, with the Brewers having won three of the first five.
Will the Brewers close out the series with a win on their home diamond, or can the Cubs grab the upset on the road?
While this is a square pick and I imagine the public will also be all over the Brewers, I just don’t see any reason to bet against them. They’re at home, have the better starting pitcher and bullpen, and they have a great matchup against Stroman.
These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and I expect Milwaukee to close out the series on a positive note in front of its home crowd.
Reds vs. Rockies
Jules Posner: The Reds are constructed to lose, so it’s pretty safe at this point to bet that they will. The real question is by how much? Additionally, the Reds are comprised of human professional baseball players with emotions like pride and competitiveness, which throws a wrench in their hopes to lose every game.
The Rockies are 8-4 at home and the moneyline sits around -155 at the moment. If it stays there that might be worth taking, but if you’re looking for value the run line is +115 and it’s worth the risk considering the Reds pitching, offense and 2-11 road record.
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