Thursday’s MLB Player Prop Picks: Strikeout Totals to Bet for Lance Lynn & Zach Davies (June 3)
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Davies
- Two Chicago starters present value in the MLB player props market on Thursday night.
- Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, Kevin Davis has identified where there's betting value on Lance Lynn and Zach Davies' strikeout totals.
- With both Chicago clubs in first place, Davis breaks down how bettors should target each of their starters' numbers.
With a large slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, an over and an under.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 41-34, +2.08 Units, +2.8% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Lance Lynn (CHW) — 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-136)
|Tigers at White Sox||White Sox (-210)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
Lance Lynn has quietly been one of the better pitchers over the last three years. Lynn typically pitches deep into games, has a decent strikeout rate and keeps runs off the scoreboard. This season, he has a 6-1 record, 9.74 strikeouts per nine innings, a 1.37 ERA and a 3.98 xFIP. Additionally, he is averaging about six innings per start.
There are many teams like the Padres, Brewers, and White Sox who are strikeout prone and good. Well, the Detroit Tigers are strikeout prone and bad. Detroit’s lineup averages 9.91 strikeouts per game, which is the worst in the league. Tigers hitters have 11.9% more strikeouts per game than the median MLB team.
In a typical start Lynn pitched for about six innings and has 6.28 strikeouts. If Lynn has a typical start today against Detroit, he will not go over his strikeout total. However, if you adjust Lynn’s strikeouts for Detroit’s lineup, he should have 7.02 strikeouts.
While Lynn could go over his strikeout total today, even against Detroit he is unlikely to hit his over. If you want to win in the long term on strikeout props, you must be willing to bet against good pitchers against strikeout prone teams. I like Lynn to have under 7.5 strikeouts at -136 and I would bet it up to -145.
Pick: Lance Lynn (CHW) Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-136) (DraftKings) would play up to -145
- Action Labs Score: 9
- Kevin Davis Score: 3
Zach Davies (CHC) — 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/-105)
|Cubs at Giants||Giants (-130)|
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
Zach Davies has not been very effective this season. After having a 7-4 record with a 2.73 ERA last year with the Padres, he has a 2-2 record and a 4.65 ERA with the Cubs. Even worse for Davies is that his strikeout rate this season has fallen from 8.18 strikeouts per nine innings to only 5.75. As a result, BetMGM has set Davies’ strikeout total at only 2.5 strikeouts, the lowest I have seen this season for any pitcher.
The opposing San Francisco Giants’ lineup averages only 8.86 strikeouts per game, which is the median for MLB teams. If Davies goes over his strikeout total it will not be because San Francisco has an undisciplined lineup.
In a typical game this season, Davies pitches for 4 2/3 innings and has only 2.69 strikeouts. However, last season in a typical game Davies pitched for more than 5 2/3 innings and would have 5.25 strikeouts. Even with Davies pitching at his worst with fewer innings than usual, he should go over his strikeout total tonight.
At -130, I am betting on Davies to have over 2.5 strikeouts, and I would bet it up to -150.
Pick: Zach Davies Over 2. Strikeouts (-130) (BetMGM) would play up to -150
- Action Labs Score: 10 (Based on Over 3 Strikeouts +100)
- Kevin Davis Score: 8