Thursday MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez (June 23)
Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Ranger Suarez
- Today's afternoon MLB slate is loaded, but there's player prop value to be found this evening.
- There are two starting pitchers with strikeout totals set too low, according to our analyst.
- Continue reading to find out those picks, including full analysis.
The Action Network’s player prop team finally had an 0-2 day on Wednesday after a very hot string of days.
We’re looking to bounce back with two plus-money player props on Thursday’s slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Framber Valdez over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Astros @ Yankees|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
Framber Valdez is just consistent.
Since he was inserted into the rotation full-time with Houston in 2020, Valdez has made 45 starts while pitching 286 2/3 innings. Valdez is pitching a whopping 6 1/3 innings during his average start.
That’s staggering in this era.
He’s done so effectively, as well. He carries a 2.78 ERA this season and his 3.15 xERA doesn’t show too strong a likelihood for regression. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 13 starts this season, and the Astros are 8-5 in Valdez starts as a result.
Valdez doesn’t blow anyone away, averaging around eight K/9 with mediocre swing-and-miss statistics (10.1 SwSt%, 27.1 CSW%). But he pitches so many innings and generates so many outs that he often cashes these strikeout totals.
For example, Valdez has cashed this total in 7-of-13 starts this season (54%, -117 implied odds to the over) and in 21-of-40 starts dating back to 2021 (53%, -111 implied odds to the over).
Yet, we get to bet this prop at plus-money.
It also helps that the Yankees are the kings of the three true outcomes. The Yanks will either walk, strike out, or hit a home run. But their league-leading 120 wRC+ justifies that approach.
However, the Yankees’ platoon splits are must-know information.
- 2022 Yankees vs RHP: 121 wRC+ (1st), 20.5 K% (8th)
- 2022 Yankees vs LHP: 117 wRC+ (5th), 24.1 K% (27th)
And against lefties over the past month, the Yankees are striking out at a ridiculous 25.7% rate, good for the third-highest over that stretch.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Valdez for six strikeouts on the nose today, and that gives me all the reason I need to bet this prop.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Ranger Suarez over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
|Orioles @ Cardinals|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
Ranger Suarez isn’t having the dominant season he had in 2021. After posting a 1.36 ERA over 36 appearances in the bullpen, as a closer and as a starter, Suarez is regressing in a full-time starter role.
His ERA, xERA, FIP and xFIP all sit between 4.17 and 4.43. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and his WHIP is up over 1.50.
All-in-all, it’s been ugly.
However, his strikeout totals are starting to come around.
After failing to reach this number in his first five starts, Suarez has now cashed over 4.5 Ks in six of his last eight. He even managed to sneak over 4.5 twice against the Dodgers and once against the Nationals, two of the better plate-discipline teams in the league.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Suarez for five strikeouts tonight, giving us nearly a 10% edge over the plus-money line DraftKings is offering.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+120)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
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