The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL, it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
The Contender Series has been one of my post profitable betting ventures the past two years, with fairly large edges to be found by grinding the tape on lesser known prospects. While past results don't guarantee future performance, I'm excited to give it another shot over the next 10 weeks.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 1 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, August 12, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 1 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series 10 odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 1 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 1 Odds & Best Bets
Middleweight: Chris Ewert (-218) vs. Yuri Panferov (+180)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Yuri Panferov is the first of what's sure to be many returning fighters to the Contender Series this season, including another one later on in Week 1.
His first attempt was on the final week of the 2023 season, where he fell to Torrez Finney — the first of Finney's three Contender Series wins. Since then, Panferov has picked up two more wins on the regional scene, both against past their prime fighters, albeit with winning records.
As I noted the last time Panferov was here, the biggest knock on him is his level of competition. His two fights since then did little to alleviate that concern, even if they were slight steps up in competition.
He's a BJJ black belt, solid wrestler, and former Golden Gloves champion. From a skills stand point he can do it all, though he's a below-average overall athlete by UFC standards. Finney beat him more on speed and strength than technique, taking him down seven times before finishing an exhausted Panferov in the second round.
His opponent this time, Chris Ewert, is nowhere near the level of athlete as Finney is. He's still a huge step up from Panferov's other opponents, but he's on the slower and softer side for middleweight.
Ewert has strong stand up, particularly in the kicking game. He likes to keep his distance on the feet, landing heavy leg kicks before working up to the body and head. Those can wear on his opponents in extended fights, taxing the legs and arms even when the kicks are blocked.
While his hands aren't quite as good as Panferov's, his overall more well rounded attack should give him the edge on the feet. However, he tends to throw those kicks "naked" without much set up, which should give Panferov the opportunity to land takedowns.
Ewert struggled a bit in limited grappling exchanges, and quickly exposes his back in his attempts to get up. Lesser opponents have controlled him form the back for extended stretches, though not enough to hand the 5-0 Chilean his first pro loss.
I'm concerned about Panferov's gameplan here, as I think he'd eventually get worn down by the power and pressure of Ewert on the feet. However, at the price point I'm forced to side with Panferov, who should have a considerable grappling edge
Prediction: Yuri Panferov by decision
Billy's Bet: Panferov +180 (DraftKings)
Featherweight: George Mangos (-130) vs. Radley da Silva (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
At 20 years old and in just his fourth pro fight, Mango landed a third-round flying triangle over a 30 year-old man with 18 fights under his belt. That was the first, and to date only, time Mangos needed more than seven minutes to finish a fight.
That's about as positive a two-sentence description of an MMA prospect can be, and it arguably gets better from there. Since that fight Mangos has shown huge improvements in his striking, finishing two of his next three via knockout to retain the HEX MMA featherweight title he won via flying triangle.
The Australian Mangos is one of the more impressive prospects we've seen in a while, starting his 6-0 amateur career at just 15 years old before going 7-0 as a pro. His A game is his grappling where he's a dynamic submission hunter, but his striking has already made huge strides and he's still just 21.
The one knock on his game is his defensive wrestling/grappling, as he'll spend some time in bad positions looking for submissions. That could cost him against higher level competition, but by "higher level" I mostly mean ranked UFC fighters, not fellow Contender Series prospects.
Radley da Silva will probably test that wrestling though. The Brazilian-Canadian comes from a line of Capoeira practitioners, but he typically ends his combinations with a clinch and or takedown attempt.
He'll fire big punches form the outside to set up his spinning and jumping Capoeira techniques, then use the openings created from his flashy attacks to score easy takedowns. From there, he has a solid top game, doing damage from the top before hunting back takes and rear naked chokes.
However, that's a terrible plan against Mangos, who has a far more developed grappling game. While the optimal plan for da Silva would be to keep things standing and hope to land bigger shots, his habit of initiating grappling will be hard to break.
At 30, he's also a bit more physically developed than the still growing Mangos, so there's a chance he's able to "big brother" him against the cage and on the ground. Not enough of a chance for me to bet on him, though.
I'm playing .65 units on Mangos' -130 moneyline at DraftKings, and an additional .35 units on his +400 submission prop.
Prediction: George Mangos by Submission
Billy's Bets: Magons Moneyline -130 (.65u) | By Submission +400 (.35u) Both DraftKings
Middleweight: Baysangur Susurkaev (-360) vs. Murtaza Talha (+285)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
The second returning DWCS is hopeful on the card is Murtaza Talha. He was a big favorite in his first trip to the tryout show, but was upset by Rodolfo Bellato. I picked against him that time, citing Talha's uncomfortable striking at range as a potential issue against a taller, heavy hitting opponent.
In the meantime he's fought just once, in a bout Tapology has flagged for issues with legitimacy. While he certainly could have improved his striking and striking defense in the two years since we last saw him, he hasn't put much evidence on tape to prove it.
Unfortunately for Talha, his opponent this time around poses similar matchup difficulties. Baysangur Susurkaev stepped in on short notice to replace Damian Pinas in this fight, but fits the general profile that has troubled Talha in the past.
The reason Susurkaev was available was because he was in Los Angeles, helping his countryman Khamzat Chimaev prepare for his UFC 319 headlining spot. Susurkaev primarily trains at Kill Cliff FC in Florida since moving stateside, but seems to be a primary sparring partner for Chimaev at least in this camp.
Susurkaev is heavily reminiscent of Chimaev on the feet, with a similar low hands stance that he throws hard hooks from. Rather than keep his hands low to grapple offensively, he uses that position to defend takedowns — a necessary skill when most of his early career was fought in Dagestan and Chechnya.
With that said, I'm not laying the juice on Ssurkaev's moneyline, as this is a big step up in competition and Talha should have an edge grappling if he can get it to the ground. Instead, I'm looking at Susurkaev inside the distance, which is currently -150 at DraftKings.
I say "currently" because his moneyline price is dropping, which would also lower his inside the distance prop. Hopefully, we'll get somewhere close to even money by fight time
Prediction: Baysangur Susurkaev by knockout
Billy's Bet: Susurkaev Inside the Distance (Best Available at Fight Time)
Welterweight: Ty Miller (-198) vs. Jimmy Drago (+164)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
The lone welterweight fight on Week 1 on this season of the Contender Series features two fairly nondescript Americans, with 7-2 Jimmy Drago (whose name unfortunately rhymes with "Faygo" and is not pronounced the same way as the Rocky IV antagonist) taking on 5-0 Ty Miller.
The most interesting thing about either fighter is that both are coming off no contests in their last fight, which is especially unusual for fighters getting the call for the Contender Series.
They're both primarily strikers, with the smaller Drago showing good speed and power, finishing five of his seven pro wins. He manages to push a pretty heavy pace throughout his fights, even those that have gone longer, attempting to overwhelm opponents with volume and intensity.
The 6'2" Miller has a three inch height advantage, and prefers to claim the center of the cage and force his opponents to step through his range to land on him. While he's not quite as quick as Drago, he throws straighter shots, which can help neutralize the hand speed deficiency.
The other note I have on Miller is that he tends to eat a lot of leg kicks at range, something Drago excels at. That could favor the more experienced man, especially in an extended fight.
Outside of that, Drago was clearly winning his no contest before it was stopped, while Miller was potentially on the way to his first career defeat. That doesn't give us much to go on, but it's something.
Miller probably has the brighter future long term, but I'd make this one close to a coin flip in the here and now. With Drago's moneyline rising to +165 at BetMGM, I'll be taking a shot at the underdog here.
Prediction: Jimmy Drago by decision
Billy's Bet: Jimmy Drago +165 (BetMGM)
Middleweight: Ilian Bouafia (-185) vs. Neemias Santana (+154)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:40 p.m. ET
The "main event" of episode 1 is yet another pairing of middleweights, with French striker Ilian Bouafia taking on the Brazilian Neemias Santana.
Bouafia is a training partner of ranked UFC middleweight Nassourdine Imavov, and has utilized his boxing heavy style to pick up five knockouts and one decision in his undefeated pro career.
He has all the physical tools you'd look for in a striker, with good length for the division at 6'5" and solid power and speed. The southpaw is very patient, and initiates combos with straight lefts that keep his shorter opponents at distance.
I was also impressed by his takedowns defense, with a fast and powerful sprawl that stopped outside wrestling attempts. His clinch game is a bit weaker, but he was able to reverse position and land on top in the limited grappling sequences he's put on tape. He'll almost certainly prefer to keep this one standing, but he's not drawing dead in grappling exchanges.
He's also extremely patient, making him well-suited to fight aggressive opponents who push the pace but leave opportunities for counters.
Which makes this a good matchup for Bouafia against Neemian Santana, who rushes forward with his hands low, looking to land heavy right hooks. Santana initiates combos with his power hand very well against southpaws which could give Bouafia trouble, but I expect the technique and reach edge to make that a non-issue.
Where Santana could win this one is on the ground, but I don't like his chances to get it there. He's clearly the "B Side" in this fight, though it's reasonably close.
In the notes I took on this one before betting lines came out, I made Bouafia between -160 and -180 on the moneyline. That means there's no real value on either fighter straight up.
However, Santana's aggression should lead to fireworks one way or the other. Bouafia's knockout prop is +100 at DraftKings, and I'd be willing to take that, but I prefer the fight to end in knockout at -185, as Santana could find a home for his right hand or finish via ground and pound.
Prediction: Bouafia by knockout
Billy's Bet: Fight Ends in KO/TKO/DQ -185 (DraftKings)
