Best Bets for Contender Series Week 9: Anticipate Violence in Matchups (Tuesday, October 3)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC octsgon at Dana White’s Contender Series event
Contender Series Week 9 takes place on Tuesday night, and we've got bets and leans for all four bouts (one was cancelled due to a bad weight miss), where UFC hopefuls look to earn their way into the UFC octagon proper.
Season 7 Episode 9 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. New Contender Series events take place every Tuesday night and run through early October.
As with all UFC Contender Series events, some of tonight's DWCS winners – and even some of the losers – could earn a UFC deal. In fact, the Contender Series events have become one of the UFC's primary feeder systems.
UFC President Dana White is cage-side for each show. After each event, the UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned an official UFC contract.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets – though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them.
(Don't forget that you can track your DWCS bets in the Action App.)
Welterweight: Raimond Magomedailev (-250) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (+190)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Ruffy was originally slated to fight Raheam Forest, but the latter was bumped up to last week's card, where he suffered a knockout loss. It was a tough break for Ruffy, as he likely would've been somewhat favored against Forest.
Moving on to the fight that is happening. Ruffy is an 8-1 Brazilian representing the "Fighting Nerds" team that has been making waves lately. The Fighting Nerds have produced UFC middleweight Caio Borralho, who is now 4-0 in the UFC, and recent DWCS winner Jean Silva. Ruffy is looking to join that group, coming in with three consecutive knockout victories.
Unfortunately, the only tape I could find on Ruffy was from his 2019 loss. Given the amount of time passed, it's reasonable to expect he's made significant changes and improvements since then. Still, we can use it as a glimpse into his style. His reach is unlisted, but he appears extremely long for his 5'11" frame. He carries his hands low, trying to draw opponents in for a counterattack while sniping with kicks from the outside.
His striking defense held up fairly well, with good footwork and quick head movement to overcome his lack of blocking with his hands. That was until it didn't and he was violently knocked out by a lunging left hand. Ruffy's style is obviously extremely high risk, especially once he tires. Unfortunately, there wasn't much grappling in the fight I could find, though he solidly defended a handful of non-committal takedown attempts.
He'll face some more serious grappling threats from Magomedailev, a ONE FC and EagleFC veteran with a 10-1 record. His last two wins were over UFC veterans, though most recently a split decision over Impa Kasangay. Hailing from Dagestan, he has the relentless wrestling style we've come to expect from fighters from the region, even utilizing the trademark strategy of letting his opponents get mostly to their feet before dragging them back down.
Magomedailev was also impressive with his striking, particularly his rapid kicks. He mixes kicks to all levels, even throwing an occasional question mark kick and spinning attack.
The kick-based striking won't give Ruffy many opportunities to counterattack, and I'm not convinced Ruffy has an overall striking edge. What he does have is power, and he could end this one with one shot. I'm interested in either fighter to win by knockout, with Magomedailev the more likely fighter thanks to his ground and pound potential. I like the -110 offered by DraftKings, and I'd take it to -150.
Prediction: Raimond Magomedailev defeats Mauricio Ruffy by ground and pound
The Bet: Fight to End by Knockout -110 (DraftKings)
Light Heavyweight: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-1100) vs. Jose Daniel Medina (+700)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
The second fight of the night also features a Russian-born Sambo artist as a favorite, the 7-0 Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. A pro since 2017, he was also an amateur world champion before making the jump to the professional ranks.
The limited tape I found on him was about what you'd expect, switching stances at range and throwing kicks to utilize his 6'3" frame, before easily taking his opponent down at the first opportunity. From there, he showed off a stifling top game before finishing the bout with strikes from the top. Overall, he's finished five of his seven wins, with four knockouts and one submission.
It's hard to see a path to victory for Medina in this matchup. He has a solid 11-2 record, but one that was largely built against much lesser competition. In his last three fights he has wins over a 2-0 opponent, am 11-22 opponent, and a split decision victory against a 4-2 opponent. He seems to be primarily a grappler, with his last two finishes via ground and pound and some experience in professional submission grappling.
However, it's hard to make that work when you can't get the fight to the ground on your terms, which is probably the case against the Russian. Due to the long odds I'll probably pass on this one, but Gadzhiyasulov by finish, knockout, or perhaps even in Round 1 are all interesting if you're looking for some action for entertainment purposes.
Prediction: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov defeats Jose Daniel Medina by TKO
The Bet: Pass
Men's Bantamweight: Victor Hugo Silva (-142) vs. Eduardo Matias Torres (+112)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET
Fortunately we have one matchup on the card projected to be competitive, with this coming in the 135lbs division. With 44 professional fights between them, Victor Hugo Silva (23-4) and Eduardo Matias Torres (16-1) are more experienced than the usual DWCS fighter, though the bulk of the experience for both has come in lower level organizations.
The 30-year old Silva has been a pro fighter since 2011, and his last loss came in 2014 when he was just 21. Since then, he's rattled off 12 wins in a row in promotions all over the world. "Striker" is — as his name implies — primarily a stand up fighter, with an aggressive kicking game reminiscent of a Jose Aldo style fighter. He likes to fight moving forward, mixing in knees and jumping attacks as well as the occasional takedown. He also brings a solid submission game to the table, with multiple heel hook wins (including his last fight).
The Chilean Torres is also very well rounded, with a near even mix of knockouts, submissions and decision victories. His one career loss came against a former UFC fighter, and he's picked up five straight victories since dropping that decision. He uses the threat of submissions to make up for his substandard takedown defense, which is partially a product of his long and skinny frame for the division.
He's dangerous on the feet, using kicks and knees to punish opponents when they close the distance. However, he struggled at times against fighters with more technical footwork. Rather than maintaining range by cutting angles and owning the center of the cage, he tried to back away but frequently ended up with his back on the fence.
Silva should be able to take advantage of that tendency by rushing in with strikes, then changing levels for a takedown once Torres finds himself out of space. Silva also seems to have a considerable speed edge on the feet, so it wouldn't be surprising for him to win their too. This line has been drifting towards Silva since it opened, and I'm fine with laying the juice, though I'll mix in a bet on Silva to win by finish at +180 as well.
Prediction: Victor Hugo Silva defeats Eduardo Matias Torres by submission
The Bet: Silva Moneyline -130 (Caesars) | Inside The Distance +180 (DraftKings)
Light Heavyweight: Murtaza Talha (-310) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (+225)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
The main event is another fight that certainly seems to be intended to showcase one of the fighters. Muratza Talha is 6-0 as a pro, andhe had a perfect 12-0 amateur record that included multiple world championship wins, including one over future UFC fighter Anton Turaklji.
He's brutally strong, finishing his last fight with a rear naked "choke" that was never on the neck, but he had the raw power to finish via jaw crush. His best work comes on the ground, where I was very impressed by his transitions. He lands heavy strikes from the top, but always has an eye towards jumping to better positions should his opponents leave even a slight opening.
Never was that more evident than in his arm-bar victory in 2022, where he transitioned from his opponent's back directly into the submission. He gives zero space for escapes from the top, flowing quickly between dominant positions.
On the feet, he looks a bit uncomfortable at range, occasionally rushing in with straight punches to establish a clinch. He has excellent dirty boxing and clinch fighting, however, and he generates plenty of power in tight quarters. If there's a window of opportunity for Bellato, it's probably at range where he can use his height and reach advantage to the fullest extent.
Bellato is 10-2, though both career losses came to promising UFC prospect Vitor Petrino. He's been dominant in all other matchups, with nine finishes and the LFA light heavyweight title to his name. He won the title at LFA 29, taking on a 15-5 opponent. The fight went all 25 minutes which is a good sign for his cardio, as that was a factor in his DWCS loss in his first attempt.
He's also a grappler, needing less than 30 seconds into that fight to secure his first takedown. He marched forward until getting into range, then shot a beautiful single leg takedown. He's a world champion (at brown belt) in BJJ, with solid top control. Unlike Talha he's very patient on the ground, content to win minutes from solid positions and not overextend himself hunting strikes or submissions.
He also has a kickboxing background, which he showed off to full effect when fighting shorter opponents. He was able to maintain distance well, and moves well for a man of his size. He also timed a knee strike perfectly with his opponent's shot, which could come in handy if Talha gets sloppy on his takedown entries.
The Petrino fight is a blueprint for how to beat him however, with Petrino walking him down and putting Bellato on his back in the first round. However, Bellato came very close on some submissions and sweeps, so this one isn't over if Talha does get a takedown. Talha is also considerably less of a threat on the feet than Petrino, who had a reach edge on Bellato.
Talha is the deserving favorite here, but the submission threat from Bellato could be enough to scare Talha off, turning this into a striking match. The line has crept a bit towards Bellata since opening, but I'd still back the underdog in his second DWCS attempt at +225.
Prediction: Renato Bellato defeats Murtaza Talha via Knockout
The Bet: Renato Bellato +225 (FanDuel)
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