Best Bets for Contender Series Week 10: 2 Underdogs Among Top Picks (Tuesday, October 10)

Contender Series Week 10 takes place Tuesday night, and we've got bets and leans for all five bouts, where UFC hopefuls look to earn their way into the UFC octagon proper.

Season 7 Episode 10 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. Tonight's event concludes the latest 10-week season of Contender Series.

As with all UFC Contender Series events, some of tonight's DWCS winners – and even some of the losers – could earn a UFC deal. In fact, the Contender Series events have become one of the UFC's primary feeder systems.

UFC President Dana White is cageside for each show, and after each event, the UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned an official UFC contract.

As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets – though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them.

(Don't forget that you can track your DWCS bets in the Action App.)

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Bantamweights: Davi Bittencourt vs Lucas Rocha

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:55 p.m. ET

This fight was originally booked for last week's event at flyweight, but a fairly bad weight miss (five pounds) by Lucas Rocha forced it off the card. It's interesting to see the same fight rebooked at a heavier weight class just a week later for the Contender Series, as it feels a bit like rewarding the overweight fighter.

Naturally, both men were able to make weight with the additional 10 pounds over their usual division, so the fight is proceeding. Interestingly enough, Davi Bittencourt had more experience as a bantamweight fighter in the past while Rocha had frequently fought at strawweight in the past despite missing the 125-pound flyweight limit. I suspect there's more to the story that we'll hear about after the fight.

Still, without that information, we have to break this one down with the assumption that both fighters bring their A-game. Both have recent fights in the LFA, so we have solid tape to work with.

Bittencourt is 14-3 with a 10-fight winning streak with nine of those 10 wins coming inside the distance. He's a fast starter with the bulk of his wins coming early, and even in his decision win for the LFA, he opened the bout throwing heavy shots and stalking his opponent. His striking is wild, and he jumps into exchanges with heavy hooks and rear hands while dropping his hands on kicks. It's a high-variance style, but he's a capable grappler who can slow the pace by landing takedowns. He was clipped on occasion during his LFA bout, but he has enough wrestling to close the distance and force a clinch even when he didn't land the takedown.

In some ways, his style is reminiscent of heavy-handed wrestlers of the past, bombing his way into grappling range with big shots. While he won't win any Olympic wrestling medals, it's a nice tool to have when the big strikes don't land. I was less impressed with his ground game, though, where he was largely unable to land much damage or threaten submissions against higher-level opponents. Especially with the current state of MMA judging, that's a dangerous strategy to employ.

Rocha is an impressive 16-1 despite being just 23 and making his pro debut at 16. He has the classic Brazilian style of muay Thai mixed with jiu-jitsu, and he advances forward with lightning-quick kicks and combos. He's certainly the faster and more technical striker than Bittencourt, though he doesn't throw with the same bad intentions.

I was impressed by Rocha's grappling on the mat. He was taken down without much resistance, but he survived a body triangle from the back early in the round from his opponent without ever being in real danger of a submission. Later in the fight, he aggressively attacked submissions, using a nice heel-hook entry to work his way back to the feet, as well as stuffing some takedowns and earning top position himself.

This fight will likely come down to the wrestling of Bittencourt if it's not decided by an early knockout. I expect Bittencourt to land occasional takedowns, but I don't see him doing enough with them to consistently secure rounds. Rocha has the better ground game, and I also prefer his technical striking style to the wild brawling of Bittencourt. Rocha's active ground game and more accurate striking should play well to the judges, who I see deciding this one.

Prediction: Luchas Rocha defeats Davi Bittencourt by decision

The Bet: Lucas Roha (+110 at BetMGM)

Lightweights: Marquel Mederos vs Issa Isakov

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET

We're fortunate enough to have another bout with both fighters having readily available tape with the second fight of the evening, which features Marquel Mederos and Issa Isakov.

Isakov is a Russian-born, Belgium-trained lightweight with a 10-2 pro record primarily with the European promotion Brave FC. He's largely fought stiff competition throughout his pro career, picking up six knockouts and two submissions in his 10 wins. I was impressed with his power on the feet and his counter-striking ability in the tape I saw. However, as his name and full beard with no mustache would imply, his real strength is on the ground.

Isakov used the simultaneous overhand-right/ankle-pick technique to great effect on multiple occasions, grounding his opponents by off-balancing them with the strike while pulling their lead foot out. His top game on the ground is absolutely dominant. He's able to land short strikes while leaving absolutely no space for his opponent to escape while transitioning smoothly between positions if his opponent rolls to escape danger.

I couldn't find a single hole to poke in his ground game. He even utilized the oft-overlooked knee to the body on the ground from multiple positions, which opened up plenty of other striking opportunities.

Mederos is a Factory X product with a strong 7-1 record. His only loss was via split decision, and six of his seven fights have been for Texas-based Fury FC. He's a striker, and five of his seven wins were knockouts with two decisions. I would describe his level of competition as appropriate, but it wouldn't be accurate to say he's fought any truly high-level opponents.

While he's primarily a striker, he'll seize takedown opportunities if they're presented to him. It's obviously not his preferred area to operate, though, and he leaves too much space from top position to keep his opponents grounded for long. In a fight with fellow striker Michael Murphy, Mederos was overwhelmed at times on the feet but clearly the crisper striker. He mixes kicks and punches well while staying fairly defensively sound.

Mederos has a striker's chance on the feet here, but Isakov is the better overall fighter. Mederos' reliance on kicks to set up his offense will allow plenty of takedown opportunities for Isakov, and once on the ground, Isakov should dominate. I'm fine laying the juice on his moneyline at -190 on FanDuel, but I would prefer to wait for his inside-the-distance prop, which I'd prefer at -120 or better.

Prediction: Issa Isakov defeats Marquel Mederos via submission

The Bet: Isakov Inside the Distance (Best Available)

Lightweights: Yuri Panferov vs Torrez Finney

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET

We have a pair of 6-0 middleweights in the third bout of the evening with Russia's Yuri Panferov meeting Torrez Finney of Tennessee.

Panferov has finished all six of his professional fights in the first round with five submissions and one knockout via ground and pound. However, his level of competition leaves some major question marks, and he's never faced a fighter with a winning record. His most recent fight that's available on UFC Fight Pass came againsat a 44-year-old with an 8-12 record whose team was listed as "independent," and that's a fairly solid summation of his typical opponent.

As his record suggests, he's looking to get the fight to the ground as quickly as possible, which is exactly what he did in both of the fights I watched. While he looked solid once he got there, it's hard to feel too confident given the level of opposition.

Finney will be a massive step up. He was a two-sport Division I athlete at the University of Tennessee Chattanooga, playing fullback for the football team while wrestling at heavyweight. He was a two-time state champion wrestler in high school, as well. He's been a professional only since early 2022, but it's been an impressive run with five knockouts and one decision win.

Unlike Panferov, he's fought some tougher opponents, including a 5-1 (at the time) fighter from AKA. Finney is short for the division at just 5-foot-7 but has the speed and explosiveness to close the distance well. He's a powerful wrestler who will seize any opportunity to explode into takedowns. He doesn't seem to hunt submissions, and he prefers to look to do as much damage as possible on his opponents.

Finney's level of competition and fairly large athleticism edge make him a deserving favorite, but he's not quite well-rounded enough that I'd be comfortable laying more than -200 odds on him. I also have doubts about his submission/BJJ abilities, an area where Panferov shines. While I'm officially predicting Finney to grind this one out from top position, that's not how I'll be betting it.

Instead, let's look for a sprinkle on Panferov via submission, which I suspect will be lined at very juicy odds. I'm hoping for +500 or better, but I would consider a quarter-unit bet at +400 or more.

Prediction: Torrez Finney defeats Yuri Panferov via decision

The Bet: Yuri Panfero via Submission (+400 or better)

Featherweights: Connor Matthews vs. Jair Farias

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:25 p.m. ET

After dropping his initial shot on the Contender Series and bouncing back with a regional-circuit win, Connor Matthews is back for a second shot at a UFC contract. Outside of his DWCS loss, he's 6-0 as a pro with five submission victories and a flash knockout in his debut.

He's taking on Brazil's Jair Farias, who brings an unblemished 10-0 record into the evening. Farias has fought exclusively for smaller Brazilian promotions throughout his career, though he's fought some opponents with reasonably solid records during that time.

Matthews was solid on the feet against Francis Marshall in his first attempt on Contender Series, but he was dominated in the wrestling department. The biggest issue with Matthews' game broadly is that he's excellent on the ground but isn't able to get the fight there on his own terms against higher-level opponents.

It's harder to find tape on Farias, but his most recent fight is available on YouTube. He took on a 13-7 opponent and picked up a first-round knockout win. The 5-foot-11 Farias is very tall for a featherweight and worked effectively behind his jab and long leg kicks from the outside. His kick-heavy style could leave some openings for takedowns from Matthews, however, as most of his power comes from rear-leg kicks.

I don't feel great about Matthews given his poor showing during his first appearance on the Contender Series, but this line has gotten a bit out of hand. There's no tape on Farias that suggests he has much wrestling, and Matthews should be significantly better if he can get this one to the ground. He's going to look a lot worse than his +165 odds on the feet, but hopefully, this one doesn't stay there for long.

There's also something to be said for the return trip to the UFC Apex being an edge. Matthews should be a bit more comfortable than Farias, who has never fought outside of Brazil. With the line moving against him since opening, I'll take Matthews at +165.

Prediction: Connor Matthews defeats Jair Farias via submission

The Bet: Connor Matthews (+165 at Caesars)

Flyweights: Rickson Zenidim vs. Andre Lima

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET

Hardcore MMA fans have been waiting 30 years to see Rickson make an appearance in the UFC octagon, and it's finally happening Tuesday night. While it's not the Rickson we'd been hoping for (Gracie), Rickson Zenidim is an exciting Brazilian prospect with a similar submission-heavy style. His 14-1 professional record includes 10 wins by submission with his only loss coming via decision.

This does have the feel of an old-school "NHB" fight with the grappling-focused Zenidim taking on former professional kickboxer Andre Lima. This isn't exactly Royce Gracie vs. Gerard Gordeua at UFC 1, but both fighters have a clear edge in a certain aspect of the game. That means this one is likely to come down to the wrestling with Zenidim needing a takedown to put this one in his wheelhouse.

Lima was taken down in each round of his LFA fight, but he was able to reverse to a dominant position in the first round and escape to his feet in the second. However, he was in some danger before getting himself upright with a head-and-arm choke that could've been finished by a more adept grappler. He eventually was able to counter some bad takedown attempts by his gassed opponent before picking up the finish on the ground.

Zenidim has an aggressive muay Thai style on the feet, and he throws plenty of jumping and spinning attacks while inviting the clinch. That's his preferred method to bring the fight to the ground – and also how Lima's opponent was able to take him down in LFA. I was a bit let down by Zenidim's takedown attempts, but he's extremely active off his back while launching a flurry of elbows and submission attempts from his guard.

Zenidim spent the bulk of his lone career loss playing from his guard, but there's an argument that had that fight been scored by a U.S. athletic commission, he would've been awarded the decision based on activity from the ground.

Ultimately, I was disappointed enough in Zenidim's wrestling ability that it's hard to pick him straight up. However, I do think he has the grappling ability to win this more than the 30% of the time his +230 odds imply. His best chance is a submission, so I'll be splitting my bets between his moneyline and his submission prop given the "Prop Squad" style odds on the latter – but the likeliest outcome is Lima controls this one on the feet.

Prediction: Andre Lima defeats Rickson Zenidim via knockout

The Bet: Rickson Zenidim (+230 at DraftKings) | Rickson Zenidim via Submission (+650 at DraftKings)

Bantamweights: Ramon Taveras vs. Cortavious Romious

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:25 p.m. ET

Ramon Taveras is another returning fighter on this edition of the Contender Series. His previous chance was just five weeks ago on Week 5, when he was defeated via TKO by Serhiy Sidey. Which makes this an unexpected second chance – until you remember the horribly early stoppage in that fight.

I was pretty low on Taveras coming into that fight, and nothing I saw in that bout changed my mind. While he deserved a chance to keep fighting, he certainly wasn't winning at the time the ref jumped in. He's a one-dimensional boxer with a padded record, and he wasn't even able to clearly win the boxing exchanges in his first Contender Series opportunity.

Cortavious "Are You Not Entertained" Romious is the far more well-rounded fighter and superior athlete – on top of having the far better nickname. The 5-foot-4 Romious charges into the pocket aggressively to overcome his shortcomings in the height and reach department. He's an extremely adept grappler who's more than happy to invite his opponents to shoot or clinch, and he has four of his seven wins by submission.

I was especially impressed by his win in the LFA, where he picked up an armbar off his back against a seasoned 14-10 opponent (and BJJ black belt) that earned him his purple belt in BJJ in the cage following the fight. Not that I expect him to end up on his back against Taveras, who will certainly want to keep this fight standing.

Taveras has a puncher's chance here, which is enhanced by the four-inch height and reach advantage he'll enjoy in this one. That's not enough for me even at +180 or so odds, though I could see a case for Taveras' knockout prop at +400. However, 5-foot-4 Romious is clearly used to fighting longer fighters while 5-foot-8 Taveras doesn't have a ton of experience with a big reach edge.

Romious should be able to take care of this one on the ground, whether that comes via submission or ground and pound. He's -135 to finish this one, which is enough for me.

Prediction: Cortavious Romious defeats Ramon Taveras via submission

The Bet: Cortavious Romious Inside The Distance -135 (DraftKings)