NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Grizzlies vs. 76ers, Warriors vs. Hawks (Sunday, April 4)
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks.
This has been a fantastic weekend for basketball and that continues on Sunday with a seven-game NBA slate.
Our NBA analysts have targeted two games tonight, and are betting one total and one spread. Let’s take a look our experts’ in-depth analysis for each showdown below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Philadephia 76ers
Raheem Palmer: The last six times the Grizzlies and 76ers have met, they’ve scored a combined average of 213. While previous matchups are irrelevant in regards to today’s matchup, I think it says something about how these two teams play one another.
These are two of the league’s top defensive teams with the 76ers ranking third in Defensive Rating (108.2) and the Grizzlies seventh (110.5) in their non garbage time minutes, according to Cleaning the Glass.
The interesting thing about the 76ers is there’s very little drop off with Joel Embiid off the court, which isn’t something that was the case in previous seasons. Embiid has been ruled out, but it doesn’t change this handicap too much given how well the 76ers perform defensively without him.
The Grizzlies aren’t very good offensively this season, scoring just 110.4 points per 100 possessions which is 20th among NBA teams. This team plays at the fifth-fastest Pace (101.24), pushing to tempo to get easy baskets before the defense sets. But in the half court, their offense isn’t nearly as effective.
They’re 27th in 3-point shooting percentage (34.9%) and 18th in field goal percentage at the rim (62.8%) and they’re mostly thriving on midrange jump shots and floaters where they have the ninth-best shooting percentage (43.2%). Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, the 76ers are the second-best team at defending the mid-range, allowing teams to shoot just 38.8% or just 0.776 points per possession.
Overall I just don’t expect the Grizzlies to score efficiently against this 76ers defense. These teams met on Jan. 16 and despite a two-point Grizzlies win, they scored just 106 points on 1.02 points per possessions in a game with 103.2 possessions. That’s not particularly encouraging.
The 76ers may not drop off defensively without Embiid but there is some drop off offensively as they’re +11.7 points per 100 possessions better offensively with Embiid On (120.2) vs Off (108.5). They’ll be facing a Grizzlies defense which is seventh in opposing field goal percentage at the rim (62.4%).
While the 76ers should find some success in the mid-range where they rank third in field goal percentage, if I’m playing an under I would rather bet on two teams who are taking a ton of mid range jumpers and floaters as opposed to teams who are lighting it up from 3-point range.
My numbers make this game 223, so at 225 I’ll play the under.
Golden State Warriors vs. Atlanta Hawks
Kenny Ducey: I wrote about this game in greater detail in today’s betting guide, but I’ll sum up my thoughts here now that Trae Young has been cleared to play.
The Warriors and shootouts haven’t exactly gone together this year. Even with Curry, scoring the basketball has been a chore and now their defense has suffered as well.
Much of this game is going to come down to the pre-game injury report. Though Draymond Green (questionable) has been just about the only thing that’s been working defensively, I put much more stock into the status of Young here.
The Hawks are also strong as a home favorite, where they’re a whopping 7-5 against the spread this season. The Warriors have been a brutal 9-17 ATS away from The Bay, and even in a good spot would be difficult to trust.
With Young in, I don’t see any way the Warriors can keep up with how badly they’ve defended. Therefore, I’m going to lay the points here.
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