Warriors vs. Hawks NBA Odds & Picks: Lean Toward Atlanta, But Monitor Young’s Status (Sunday, April 4)
Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks star Trae Young.
- The Hawks host Golden State, which is coming off an embarrassing 53-point loss to the Raptors last time out.
- The Warriors will get Stephen Curry back on Sunday night, while some of Atlanta’s key offensive weapons’ statuses are up in the air.
- Kenny Ducey breaks down where he sees betting value in this matchup.
Warriors vs. Hawks Odds
|Moneyline||+104 / -124|
|Time||Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday morning via DraftKings.|
The Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks have had moments this season, but both have fallen on hard times over the last seven games.
To make matters worse, Golden State’s dealt with injuries to both of its best player and Atlanta is listing Trae Young as questionable for Sunday’s game, throwing the outcome of this contest up in the air.
With so much to go through when it comes to these franchises, let’s see if we can get a clearer read on this contest.
Golden State Warriors
Well, that was embarrassing. Down their defensive anchor and whole offense, the Warriors were absolutely trucked by the Toronto Raptors on Friday, losing by 53 points to a team that’s been a complete disappointment this year.
It marked a low point for Golden State, but also was a reminder of what this team has without Draymond Green and Stephen Curry: nothing.
Green is questionable for this tilt with the same sprained left finger that kept him out of the loss to the Raptors, while Eric Paschall will miss the contest with left hip soreness. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry didn’t show up on Saturday’s injury report and appears to have healed from his tailbone issue.
It’s hard to understate the impact that Green has had on this team. Not only did the Warriors look like a completely different group when he returned from his early-season absence, the numbers over the course of the year have followed suit.
Green has improved the defense by 2.3 points per 100 possessions, and the Warriors have grabbed 2.4% more of available rebounds. He’s the only thing keeping an unsteady frontcourt standing, without him the team’s rebounding and defense in the paint has crumbled.
With or without Green and Curry, Golden State has been a disaster as of late. The Warriors have lost six of seven games, covering the spread in just one of those contests. During that span, its normally-competitive defense has ranked last in efficiency, with a defensive rating of 119. Against any semi-capable offense, the Warriors have been toast.
The Hawks haven’t been going much better than the Warriors over the last seven games, taking just three of them, but two of those wins have come in the last two contests.
To their credit, Atlanta has played pretty incredibly on offense over its last seven games, ranking fifth in the league in efficiency. The Hawks’ issue, as it has been all season, has been on the defensive side of the ball, where they’ve allowed almost the same amount of points per 100 possessions (116.8) as they’ve scored (117.3) in the category.
That offense would take a significant hit without Trae Young (knee) and Danilo Gallinari (Achilles), who are both listed as questionable. The two rank in the Hawks’ top three in offensive rating, and Young in particular has been looked at for offensive production. He has added 13.5 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com.
The injury report will determine what kind of game this will be for the Hawks, but there’s a chance the offense isn’t there to mask the numerous issues they’ve had on defense. They’ve scored 130 points per game over their last two wins, allowing 116 on average. The only type of game they’ve been capable of winning is a shootout.
The Warriors and shootouts haven’t exactly gone together this year. Even with Curry, scoring the basketball has been a chore and now their defense has suffered as well.
Much of this game is going to come down to the pre-game injury report, so it’s difficult to get a crystal-clear read. Though Green has been just about the only thing that’s been working defensively, I’d put much more stock into the status of Young here. If he doesn’t go, I’d be inclined to take the points here with the Warriors, considering they’ll have their offensive weapon back.
There’s also the issue of the Hawks as a home favorite, where they’re a whopping 7-5 ATS this year. The Warriors have been a brutal 9-17 ATS away from The Bay, and even in a good spot would be difficult to trust.
If Young is in, I don’t see any way the Warriors can keep up with how badly they’ve defended. Therefore, I’m going to lay the two points, with the hope he suits up. I’d recommend waiting until we get official word.
Pick: Hawks -2 (-110)