Wednesday NBA Betting Odds & Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Knicks vs. Bulls, Spurs vs. Heat (April 28)
Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: DeMar DeRozan #10 of the San Antonio Spurs; Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat.
- Nearly every game on Wednesday's 10-game NBA slate has some playoff implications.
- Our NBA analysts are eyeing two games tonight: Bulls vs. Knicks and Spurs vs. Heat.
- Check out their game breakdowns and betting picks below.
Wednesday night’s schedule brings us 10 games and the large majority of those games have some playoff implications attached to them, including the two national TV matchups: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Washington Wizards and L.A. Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns.
For tonight, our NBA analysts are focused on two important games for the playoff standings and are betting a one favorite and one underdog in those matchups.
Take a look their in-depth analysis and picks below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks
Brandon Anderson: I’m sorry, what are we doing here?
The New York Knickerbockers just won nine games in a row and then led the Phoenix Suns by double digits for much of the first half before finally losing their first game since April 7. The Knicks are really, genuinely good. Julius Randle is the clear Most Improved Player, and Tom Thibodeau should be the Coach of the Year.
The defense has held up all season, even as we all expected them to regress, and the offense is finding just enough to get by in classic Thibs fashion. All the better that Elfrid Payton’s minutes are lower than ever lately since the team seems to play so much better with him off the court. RJ Barrett is balling. Immanuel Quickly is one of the NBA’s best rookies. Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson are doing the veteran Thibs thing. It’s all working.
And then there’s the Bulls, who haven’t been good at any point this season, or last season, or maybe not consistently since about the last time a Bulls-Knicks game mattered. Chicago has won four of five … or four of 10, depending on when you stop counting backwards.
The wins have come against the Heat, Hornets, Celtics, and Cavs, and news flash: the Knicks are better than all those teams right now. The Bulls are more blah than bad, but they definitely aren’t great, especially with Zach LaVine still watching from the sidelines.
And despite all that, this line has moved toward Chicago? I don’t buy it.
The Knicks are just better. All season long, they’ve found ways to win close, tough games like this while the Bulls continue to find ways to lose them. I’m grabbing New York at -4 before the line rises again.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
Raheem Palmer: The Miami Heat simply aren’t the team we saw during last year’s NBA Playoffs. They’ve dealt with injuries, absences due to the NBA’s health and safety protocols and overall this offense has regressed.
Despite being sixth in Defensive Rating, holding opposing teams to just 110.8 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes, the Heat offense is so abysmal that they can’t run away and hide from teams.
They typically find themselves in close games as they’re just 23rd in Offensive Rating, scoring 110 points per 100 possessions. Their offense could take an even bigger hit here if they end up missing both Tyler Herro (foot) and Kendrick Nunn (neck) for this one.
This is a revenge spot for the Spurs — their last defeat came against the Heat in last Wednesday’s 107-87 loss. The Spurs held a 64-61 lead in the third quarter and shot just 11-of-38 (28.9%) in the second half and 4-of-17 (23.5%) in the fourth quarter before the game got out of hand.
Outside of that game, the Spurs have been in good form, winning and covering five out of their past six games. The Spurs are eighth in Defensive Rating (111.2) in their non garbage time minutes, but over the past two weeks, they have held opposing teams to 108.7 points per 100 possessions, fourth in the NBA.
The Heat also have a top tier defense, however, they’ve been slipping recently, allowing 114.6 points per 100 possessions, 18th among NBA teams. They gave up offensive ratings of 129.1 and 117.1 in losses against the Hawks without Trae Young and Bulls without Zach LaVine, so they can be exploited on any given night.
Overall, I think this spread a bit too high. The last time these two teams played the spread was Heat -1.5 and while there is a venue change from San Antonio to Miami, I’m not sure if the Heat are 4.5-points better at home, especially with the injuries to Herro and Nunn. I’ll take the points with the Spurs.
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