NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Thursday, Feb. 13): Teasing Out Sharp Money on Clippers-Celtics, Pelicans-Thunder

Credit:

Sean Gardner/Getty Images. Pictured: Zion Williamson

Feb 14, 2020, 07:30 PM EST
  • How should we tease where the sharp money is landing on Clippers-Celtics and Pelicans-Thunder?
  • Bryan Mears has every angle covered in his Thursday manifesto.

This NBA season, I’m trying something new. I’m going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night’s slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 6-5 for +2.1 units. While I don’t want to get sucked into the past, I think it’s worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

  • I bet Hornets +8.5 and it closed at Hornets +6 (won)
  • I bet Hornets-Wolves under 228 and it closed at 224.5 (won)
  • I bet Wolves under 118 and it closed at 115 (won)
  • I bet Grizzlies -4.5 and it closed at Grizzlies -3.5 (won)
  • I bet Bucks-Pacers under 223 and it closed at 224 (lost)
  • I bet Raptors-Nets under 223.5 and it closed at 224 (won)
  • I bet Knicks -2.5 and it closed at Knicks -3 (lost)
  • I bet Hawks -2 and it closed at Hawks -3 (lost)
  • I bet Heat-Jazz (2H) under 106 (lost)
  • I bet Raptors-Nets (2H) under 109 (won)
  • I bet Wizards-Knicks (2H) under 111 (lost)

To explain why I had a good day (+2.1 units) despite a middling record (6-5), I always bet based on what I think is my projected edge. Thankfully I was able to hit on those bigger edges — mostly in that Wolves-Hornets games with the late injuries to Karl-Anthony Towns, Cody Zeller, Terry Rozier and others — which boosted my winnings.

If anything, I likely should’ve bet more, although I wasn’t expecting the lines to move quite that much. Right after KAT’s injury, the total dropped from 228 to 222 at most books. It ended up rebounding back up to 224.5 and was in flux due to other injuries, but I probably didn’t leverage quite hard enough there.

Anyway, let’s dive into today’s slate and find some angles.

YTD Record:

  • Overall: 223-201-2
  • Spreads: 87-85-2
  • Totals: 87-85
  • Moneylines: 23-10
  • Props: 29-22

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Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Betting Odds and Analysis

  • 8 p.m. ET: OKC Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans (-2), 231.5
  • 8 p.m. ET: LA Clippers at Boston Celtics (-1.5), 227

Thunder at Pelicans

The public is ALL OVER the Pelicans here. They’re getting 85% of the bets and 93% of the money. Sharps must be on the other side, right?

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