The San Antonio Spurs (22-7) and Oklahoma City Thunder (26-6) will face off in the NBA this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 2:30 p.m. ET from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites over the Spurs on the spread (Thunder -9.5), with the over/under set at 235.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a 76-cent favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while San Antonio is priced at 25 cents to pull off the upset on Fanatics Markets.
Let's get into my Spurs vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Christmas Day.
Spurs vs Thunder Prediction, Picks
- Spurs vs Thunder pick: Thunder -9.5
My Spurs vs Thunder best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at Fanatics Markets. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Spurs vs Thunder Odds
Spurs vs Thunder NBA Christmas Day Preview
“Surely this can’t happen a third time.”
I was on the Thunder again on Tuesday because every spot said that the Thunder should roll. Mark Daigneault is now 10-3-1 when coming off a loss facing a team they lost the last matchup to. They were 10-2 going into Tuesday.
I am definitely concerned that this is just a matchup problem and the Spurs have somewhat “figured out” OKC — but on the other hand, there’s no real reason for that to be the case.
Daigneault’s Thunder are 58-32 (64.4%) ATS at home facing a team they lost the last matchup to and 24-7 since 2023-24.
I still make the spread for this game Thunder -13.
I’ll be honest, the Spurs beating OKC twice and proving they can bleed their own blood has me shook. But you have to trust the process, and the process says OKC likely blows out San Antonio in impressive fashion on Christmas Day to send a reminder of whose league this is.
Spurs vs Thunder Prediction, Analysis
In the first matchup, the Thunder shot 24 percent from 3-point range. In the second matchup, the Thunder got to the line for seven free throws, total, from two players.
Those simply aren't Thunder-adjacent numbers. These are weird, bizarre outliers. And sure, some of that can be credited to the Spurs’ defense, but why did OKC shoot 40 percent in the second game from deep and get to the line in the first game?
I am forced to play the numbers, disregard the temptation to say the Spurs have their number, and instead trust the number.
I lean under here as well, as I make this game 229.4 — but the over is 20-9 in those games when the Thunder lost the previous matchup.
Pick: Thunder -9.5
