The NBA regular season is back in action with a stacked slate of games on Christmas Day, with a total of five matchups scheduled for the holiday.
So, I've locked in picks for all five Christmas Day games, including bets for Cavaliers vs Knicks, Rockets vs Lakers, Timberwolves vs Nuggets, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Thursday, December 25.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Christmas Day
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Cavaliers vs. Knicks Moneyline Prediction
This game is really tricky. The Knicks have been better on the season by a pretty wide margin. The Cavaliers have wildly disappointed and are a league-worst 9-22 ATS this season.
The opening night line for this game was +1.5. This is a seven-point move from the opener, which might not be crazy given Evan Mobley’s injury and how the seasons of both teams have gone so far — but the Cavs are on a winning streak, and their offense has looked more like it should in the past two games against weaker competition.
Also, Mobley was upgraded to questionable on the injury report.
The Knicks’ defense isn’t elite, 17th in the league. They’ll hammer the Cavs on the glass like they do every team, but the Cavs are only middle of the pack on the defensive glass (16th). So, it’s not a huge weakness.
The Knicks give up the most 3-point attempts by percentage of total shots in the league, and Cleveland ranks 3rd in 3-point rate.
The Cavs are coming off a blowout over the Pelicans, but they are actually 13-9 going back to last season off a blowout or more than 20 points.
The problem is that the Knicks’ injury report is basically clean. Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby both missed the Wolves game on Tuesday and are now off the report entirely. They were saving them for this game.
When Anunoby plays this season, the Knicks are 13-7 ATS. Without him? Just 5-5.
With both teams fully healthy, I make the spread for this game Knicks -8 — largely based on the strength of the Knicks at home:
- The Knicks are 13-3 ATS at home this season, covering by 4.6 points per game.
- The Knicks are also 2-1 SU on Christmas Day in the Jalen Brunson era, though just 1-2 ATS.
I won’t be surprised if the Mobley news moves this line towards the Cavaliers, but he could get ruled out and move the line back to 6.5.
Ultimately, I think the Knicks win, and teams that win at home on Christmas are 23-6 ATS the last five seasons.
Pick: Cavaliers Moneyline (+185)
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Spurs vs. Thunder Spread & Total Bets
“Surely this can’t happen a third time.”
I was on the Thunder again on Tuesday because every spot said that the Thunder should roll. Mark Daigneault is now 10-3-1 when coming off a loss facing a team they lost the last matchup to. They were 10-2 going into Tuesday.
I am definitely concerned that this is just a matchup problem and the Spurs have somewhat “figured out” OKC — but on the other hand, there’s no real reason for that to be the case.
Daigneault’s Thunder are 58-32 (64.4%) ATS at home facing a team they lost the last matchup to and 24-7 since 2023-24.
I still make the spread for this game Thunder -13.
I’ll be honest, the Spurs beating OKC twice and proving they can bleed their own blood has me shook. But you have to trust the process, and the process says OKC likely blows out San Antonio in impressive fashion on Christmas Day to send a reminder of whose league this is.
In the first matchup, the Thunder shot 24 percent from 3-point range. In the second matchup, the Thunder got to the line for seven free throws, total, from two players.
Those simply aren't Thunder-adjacent numbers. These are weird, bizarre outliers. And sure, some of that can be credited to the Spurs’ defense, but why did OKC shoot 40 percent in the second game from deep and get to the line in the first game?
I am forced to play the numbers, disregard the temptation to say the Spurs have their number, and instead trust the number.
I lean under here as well, as I make this game 229.4 — but the over is 20-9 in those games when the Thunder lost the previous matchup.
Pick: Thunder -10.5, Lean Under 233.5
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Mavericks vs. Warriors Over/Under Pick
I project this game to stay under the total, but I’m fading the model.
Here’s why:
- The Mavericks have been an over team as of late, going 7-3 in their last 10 to the over with a totals margin of +9.55, and 8-4 to the over since Ryan Nembhard began starting for Dallas.
- Overs on Christmas have been dynamite; overs are 53% in the last 10 years and 14-6 in the last five Christmas Days.
- The Warriors are 10th in over rate at home this season.
- Dallas is No. 2 in transition points added since November 28 when Nembhard began starting; they are simply running more.
Dallas’ offense is still wildly mediocre and the Warriors’ defense is solid-to-good — but there’s enough here to suggest that the over needs to be the play.
The Mavericks defense is designed to slow down pick-and-roll-heavy offenses, which Golden State isn’t. Dallas’ defensive issues appear on cuts and off screens, and those are primary actions for the Warriors.
On the other side, Dallas is huge, and the Warriors struggle on the defensive glass. Dallas is a running team and the Warriors have the third-shortest defensive possession length on average; teams get quick shots against them, they just don’t convert at a high level.
I’ll take the over here and assume my numbers are behind the more recent offensive success of Dallas.
Pick: Over 227.5 (-110)
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Rockets vs. Lakers Total Prediction
Let’s start here: we’ve seen a big swing towards overs on the Christmas slate in this new excessive offense era. The over on Christmas Day games the last five seasons is 17-8 (68%). That’s a pretty strong indicator for the spot, if only in 25 games.
The Rockets are the No. 1 road over team in the league, going up against the No. 1 home over team in the Lakers.
After posting back-to-back embarrassing losses to the Clippers and Kings, the Rockets may come out defensively with purpose. But under Ime Udoka, when the Rockets have given up back-to-back games where they’ve allowed the opponent to go over the team total, the over is still 27-24 (53%) — not a crazy number, but enough to dispel that narrative.
The Lakers are 10th in points off turnovers per game. The Rockets allow the 8th-most. The Lakers also allow the 5th-most; Houston should be able to keep their offense humming with scores off steals.
At the same time, the over is 6-3 when the Lakers' opponent averages more turnovers than them.
The Lakers get the foul line a ton — no surprise — and the Rockets are bottom-five in opponent free-throw rate. The Lakers should live at the line here.
Luka Doncic has been out with a bruise, along with Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and Gabe Vincent. I’m expecting Luka, Reaves, and Hachimura back for this one and the total to go up with it.
The Lakers struggle defensively when it comes to finishing possessions, not only with rebounding, but making the high-effort rotations. That’s doom against the Rockets, but the Lakers have the firepower to keep up.
It’s the right matchup, the right spot, with the right trends for a high scoring affair.
Pick: Over 230.5 (-110)
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Moneyline & Total Predictions
This is a nightmare spot for the Nuggets coming off a disappointing (and annoying) road loss to the Mavericks. Teams are 12-18 ATS this season after playing Dallas, and 6-11 (35%) after playing them in Dallas. They take something out of you with their physicality and pace.
Denver will be without Cam Johnson, who suffered a knee bone bruise on Tuesday. The injury report is not out yet, but Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun will likely both be out as well.
I’ll run you down where my numbers have this game based on the permutations.
- Without Gordon, Johnson, and Braun: Wolves -5.5
- With Braun, no Gordon or Johnson: Wolves -2
- With Gordon, no Braun or Johnson: Nuggets -1
- With Gordon and Braun, no Johnson: Nuggets -2
So there’s no version where I get to Nuggets -4 that doesn’t involve all three back. If the Nuggets had all three? I’d make it Nuggets -5.9, just above this number. Some of that is based on Denver’s ATS performance at home this season (8-6 ATS, but with a -0.6 ATS differential, losses to Kings, Bulls, and Mavericks at home).
The Wolves have had the Nuggets’ number the last few seasons going back to their playoff win in 2024. Denver took the first two in Minnesota, huge wins for the Nuggets, but the likelihood of them going 3-0 vs. the Wolves is very low.
Denver struggles to contain pick-and-roll point guards, and on top of Anthony Edwards, who you may have heard is good, Bones Hyland has emerged as a legit weapon for the Wolves and this is a big revenge-spot for him against his former team.
I love the over here, with Denver’s offense still a wagon as long as Nikola Jokic is wearing their uniform, and the Wolves’ offense being underrated, while their defense is slightly overrated.
The Wolves have the 7th-highest road over rate, and Denver has the 5th-highest home over rate. The Nuggets defense fell off a cliff with their injuries, though that changes if Gordon or Braun are announced questionable-to-available.
I project this total at 246.3. So, I’ll be on the over.
My favorite play from this game might be a prop, though.
Naz Reid leads the Wolves in both 3-point attempts and percentage from the corners.
The Nuggets allow the most corner-three-point attempts in the league, a result of how they defend spot-up plays by trying to take away extra passes.
Reid always plays well against Denver, and I’m expecting a great Christmas game from him in a Wolves win.
Pick: Timberwolves Moneyline (+125), Over 239.5, Naz Reid 2+ Three-Pointers
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