Wednesday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 12 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kemba Walker
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, plus analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- New York Knicks at Orlando Magic (-12.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons (-3.5), 7 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards (-10), 7 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics (pick) at Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Toronto Raptors (-2) at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia 76ers (-3) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Charlotte Hornets (-4) at New Orleans Pelicans, 8 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks (-2.5), 8:30 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets (-5), 9 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers (-10.5), 10 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz (-10.5) at Phoenix Suns, 10 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets (-1.5) at LA Clippers, 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
All data as of 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Wednesday NBA Most Public Bets
- Jazz -10.5 at Suns: 83% of bets
- Over 205.5 in Pacers-Pistons: 81%
- Hornets -4 at Pelicans: 80%
- Over 217 in Grizzlies-Blazers: 77%
- Blazers -10.5 vs. Grizzlies: 75%
Wednesday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of some of tonight’s key injury situations.
- Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic (thigh) will play. Dorian Finney-Smith (mouth) is out.
- Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley (ankle) is doubtful. Joakim Noah (knee) is questionable. Jonas Valanciunas (ankle), Kyle Anderson (shoulder), Avery Bradley (shin), Dillon Brooks (toe), Jaren Jackson Jr. (quad) and C.J. Miles (foot) are out.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on the Grizzlies:
Valanciunas’ absence opens up a ton of usage and plenty of minutes at center. If Noah is cleared to play without restrictions, he could end up being a valuable commodity. He averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in March.
If Noah is ruled out, the attention will shift to Ivan Rabb as the only healthy nominal center on the roster — and he’s listed the same height as Chandler Parsons. Bruno Caboclo, Yuta Watanabe or Julian Washburn could be forced into center minutes if the Grizzlies don’t add anyone before the end of the season.
Conley’s absence will allow Tyler Dorsey and Delon Wright to start in the backcourt for the fourth time this season. The Grizzlies are 1-2 with that duo at the helm. The rest of the guards minutes will likely filter to Jevon Carter and Dusty Hannahs — two uninspiring options.
Dorsey is far cheaper than Wright on FanDuel and DraftKings, and when he’s started in games without Conley this season, he’s averaged 35.42 DraftKings points.
The Blazers have maintained a top-10 Defensive Rating in the last four games without Jusuf Nurkic, and the Grizzlies have etched a 100.8 Offensive Rating when the injured players and those no longer on the roster have been off the court. The Grizzlies’ current implied total of 102.5 appears ambitious and unapproachable.
Wednesday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with new roles for players after the trade deadline, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +6.3 on DraftKings:
- Willy Hernangomez ($4,100) at Pelicans: +6.90 Projected Plus/Minus
- Rodney Hood ($3,900) vs. Grizzlies: +6.58 Projected Plus/Minus
- Robin Lopez ($5,100) at Wizards: +6.37 Projected Plus/Minus
- Rudy Gobert ($8,500) at Suns: +6.33 Projected Plus/Minus
It might be surprising to see a high-priced guy as one of the best values, but Gobert certainly is tonight. The Jazz have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA over the last couple of weeks, and Gobert has been a big reason why.
And that has translated to fantasy success: He’s exceeded his salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games by an average of 3.74 points. He’s locked into solid minutes tonight against a tanking Phoenix squad that remains incredibly shorthanded. He’s set up to crush again.
Wednesday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently four player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Kemba Walker to go over his 5.5 assist prop. On one hand, it’s a bit concerning to have to get assists with this group of players…
— keanu (@keanukargar) April 2, 2019
On the other hand, it’s clear Kemba is going to have the ball in his hands almost every possession. The Hornets are down to just a 3% chance to make the playoffs (per FiveThirtyEight), so this is a do-or-die game for Charlotte. Kemba gets a Pelicans team that ranks second in pace this year and is playing pretty terrible basketball down the stretch.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.
Wednesday NBA Staff Favorite Bets
Matt Moore: Wizards -10 vs. Bulls
This team has a little bit of a spark to it. The news of Ernie Grunfeld’s release won’t do anything to the team dynamic — it’s not the same effect as a coach firing — but they are a surprisingly good and fun team.
Meanwhile, the Bulls need a very specific combination to be the fun team they were for about two weeks there after the All-Star Game: Zach Lavine, Otto Porter and Lauri Markkanen (out for the year) all have to be on the floor. They’re all likely to be out, and they’ve been dreadful without them. The Wizards play fast, and there will be enough possessions for them to get the separations they need for a double-digit win.
Bryan Mears: Under 217.5 in Grizzlies-Blazers
Here’s one of my favorite Bet Labs systems. When a team goes for 130 points or more and then plays at home, the under has historically crushed, going 148-108-4 (58%) historically and 49-29-2 (63%) this season.
Further, it’s not hard to make the argument for the under on this one. The Grizzlies are missing nearly the entire team, including Mike Conley, who is doubtful to suit up. Jonas Valanciunas is out for the year. I’ll definitely take the under in this one.
Bryan Mears: Over 225.5 in Wolves-Mavericks
Alright, one more over/under one since it’s not as fun to bet unders as it is overs. Here’s another Bet Labs system:
This system identifies sharp money on the over, and historically those sharp bettors have been quite profitable — even against the closing number, as this system grades even after the resulting line movement. I’ll ride with the sharp guys and take the over in this one.
Wednesday NBA Pro System of the Day
At Bet Labs, we have a Pro NBA System called “Road Dogs Off ATS Loss.” It’s pretty self-explanatory: Road dogs that failed to cover their previous game playing against a team that did have historically been undervalued:
This system has hit at a 54.5% rate historically, good for a 6.3% Return on Investment (ROI). If you had invested $100 on every match since 2004, you would be up $11,127. Pretty nice.
There are three matches tonight:
- Bulls +10 at Wizards, 7 p.m. ET
- Wolves +2.5 at Mavs, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Grizzlies +10.5 at Blazers, 10 p.m. ET
Wednesday NBA: Most Important Betting Trend for Every Game
- Knicks at Magic: The under is 29-19 in Magic conference games.
- Pacers at Pistons: The Pistons are 21-12 ATS as favorites.
- Bulls at Wizards: The Wizards are 23-15 ATS at home.
- Celtics at Heat: The Heat are 25-12-1 ATS as underdogs.
- Raptors at Nets: The under is 10-5 in Nets division games.
- 76ers at Hawks: The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Hornets at Pelicans: The Pelicans is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Wolves at Mavericks: The under is 16-9 when the Mavs are favorites.
- Spurs at Nuggets: The over is 24-14 in Spurs away games.
- Grizzlies at Blazers: The under is 31-16 in Grizzlies conference games.
- Jazz at Suns: The under is 23-16 in Suns home games.
- Rockets at Clippers: The over is 24-14 in Clippers home games.