The Golden State Warriors (1-3) and Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1) will face off in Game 5 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Timberwolves are 10.5-point favorites over the Warriors on the spread, with the over/under set at 203 total points. Minnesota is a -550 favorite to win outright, while Golden State is +400 to pull off the upset.
This is the Warriors’ last stand. They traded for Jimmy Butler. They made a wild run to the end of the season, and still wound up in the play-in. They toppled the two-seed, and then stole the first matchup of this series. But they couldn’t steal one at home without Steph Curry, and now they face elimination on the road in Game 5 tonight.
Can the Wolves clinch their second straight Western Conference Finals appearance? Or will the Dubs find a way to dive out of the explosion and get back home to extend the series and pull off a stunning upset?
Let's get into my Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, May 14.
Warriors vs Timberwolves Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 5
My Timberwolves vs. Warriors Game 5 best bet is on Minnesota to go over its team total, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Timberwolves Team Total Over 106.5 Points (-115)
Warriors vs Timberwolves Betting Odds for Wednesday, May 14
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 203 -110 / -110 | +400 |
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 203 -110 / -110 | -550 |
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves spread: Timberwolves -10.5
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves over/under: 203 total points
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves moneyline: Warriors +400, Timberwolves -550
- Warriors vs. Timberwolves best bet: Timberwolves Over 106.5 (-115)
Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Preview
The Warriors released an update on Curry’s hamstring injury, saying that he was making good progress and would be re-evaluated on Saturday (ahead of Sunday’s potential Game 6). The message? Just win one, guys. Just force a Game 6, and Steph comes back.
The Wolves know this. They know the God of Threes is coming. They have to end it, or this thing gets dicey in a hurry back in the Bay.
Without Curry, I make the spread for this game Wolves -6.4. That’s a full four points short of the spread.
I can’t possibly lay double digits with Minnesota here after the Warriors managed to muck up these games despite late bursts of offense from the Wolves.
I also cannot bet the Warriors. Jimmy Butler is dealing with an illness and, quite frankly, has always been way more unreliable game-to-game than the Playoff Jimmy moniker suggests.
The Wolves know the deal. They know Stephen Curry comes back in Game 6 and the building will be a madhouse, or as much of a madhouse as it can be, in an overpriced sterile arena that pushed out the decades-old diehards from Oakland and replaced them with tech bros and debutantes lower bowl.
The Timberwolves have figured out the Warriors’ defense to an extent. Since posting a 94.6 offensive rating in the series opener, they’ve been above 108 in every game, while the Warriors have not cracked 108 in any game without Curry.
Julius Randle has been a revelation, Anthony Edwards finally got going, and the Wolves are at home where role players shoot better. I can’t possibly take Golden State.
This is a stay away. It feels like a trap spot for the Wolves, but I respect Minnesota too much to go against them.
Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 5 Betting Predictions
Timberwolves Team Total Over 106.5 Points (-115)
As I said, the Wolves have gotten their offense going. Their halfcourt offense stabilized, and they had 25 transition points last game. They’re attacking and getting downhill more consistently against the Warriors.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr is essentially throwing darts at a board right now trying to find a rotation.
First it was Trayce Jackson-Davis, and then Kevon Looney, and now Jonathan Kuminga. He’s grasping at straws.
They can’t get stops with TJD or Kuminga on the court, both guys have a 115 or higher defensive rating in this series.
I want nothing to do with such a low number on the Warriors’ team total, but I’ll play Minnesota’s team total over.
Trayce Jackson-Davis Under 5.5 Points (-110)
TJD started last game, and then wound up playing just 17 minutes, and only six in the second half. His turn in the rotation is up.
Draymond Green Over 6.5 Rebounds (+116)
Green had six rebounds in only 30 minutes last game.
He likely plays closer to 40 in Game 5 tonight, unless it's a blowout.
Someone has to play forward/center for Golden State, and it’s going to be Green most of the time in an elimination game.
Warriors vs Timberwolves Best Bets for Game 5
- Timberwolves Team Total Over 106.5 (-115)
- Trayce Jackson-Davis Under 5.5 Points (-110)
- Draymond Green Over 6.5 Rebounds (+116)
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