The New York Knicks (3-1) and Boston Celtics (1-3) will face off in Game 5 of their second round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Celtics are 4.5-point favorites over the Knicks on the spread (Celtics -4.5), with the over/under set at 207.5 total points. Boston is a -190 favorite to win outright, while New York is +155 to pull off the upset.
How does a team respond when, not just their season, but a whole era of basketball ends? That’s what we will unfortunately find out in Game 5 between the Celtics and Knicks tonight. New York has a 3-1 lead and has out-clutched Boston in three of the four games. The Celtics only really looked like themselves in the third game.
But the bigger story, and really the only one that matters, is that Jayson Tatum is done for the season (and probably next season) with a torn Achilles. So, let's get into my Knicks vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, May 14.
Knicks vs. Celtics Picks, Prediction for NBA Playoffs Game 5
My Celtics vs. Knicks Game 5 best bet is split between New York to cover the spread and to win outright on the moneyline, with the best lines currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best price using our live NBA odds page.
My Picks: Knicks +4.5 (-110), Knicks Moneyline (+150)
Knicks vs. Celtics Odds for Wednesday, May 14
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 207.5 -110 / -110 | +155 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 207.5 -110 / -110 | -190 |
- Knicks vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -4.5
- Knicks vs. Celtics over/under: 207.5 total points
- Knicks vs. Celtics moneyline: Knicks +155, Celtics -190
- Knicks vs. Celtics best bet: Knicks +4.5 / Knicks ML
Knicks vs. Celtics Game 5 Preview
Tatum is the Celtics' best player, a phenomenal two-way threat with an impossibly high floor. Shot’s not falling? He’s still able to leverage the defense to help find the threes that Boston relies on. Team needs to win with defense? He’s one of the 10 best forward defenders in the league.
Beyond the basketball side is the emotional side. How does Boston respond here without their captain and best player? Can they pull off the upset one time to force New York to close in Game 6? Do they pack it up, realizing that this era of their lives is over?
The Knicks are in a dangerous position: everything has gone right for them, including the unfortunate injury no one wanted. They were up 7 points when Tatum was hurt; they were going up 3-1 anyway.
But now they have to face a team with nothing left to lose, and if they do lose this game, the pressure shifts to them, if only a little.
How do you bet this game, the end of the Celtics’ modern empire?
Boston opened -3, and this has been bet up to -4.5. Even without Jayson Tatum, the Celtics are still more than a possession favorite against a team they are down 3-1 to. This is how highly the market thinks of Boston.
This isn’t new. When Boston was down 3-1 against Miami in 2023, they were 8-point favorites in Game 5. Of course, that was with Tatum. They also won and covered that game.
Boston’s had one of the stronger homecourt marks by the market over the last several playoffs.
I do think, however, the market’s move on this is a slight overreaction towards Boston. I made the opening line for this game Celtics -3. That’s with a 3-point downgrade to Boston’s power rating for Jayson Tatum.
You can argue it should be more due to everything Tatum does and how good he is. You can argue it should be less based on the team’s talent level and strength in winning the math game. I’ve got it at three points based on Tatum’s EPM this season, and that feels right to me.
Can Boston win this game? Absolutely. The Celtics are driven by math. They win by taking and making more threes than they allow you to take and make.
Boston can do that here. The Knicks honestly haven’t taken that away at a high enough level, though their switching defense has done well for the kinds of threes they allow.
The problem is that Tatum was the best player for generating threes for Boston. He could run pick-and-roll and drive with authority. He is enough of a threat to rise up that teams couldn’t go under screens. He is a terrific slip screener which forces teams to help down when they try and switch vs. Boston. He was great at drive and kicks.
Without him, those duties fall to Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. Brown hasn’t been himself this whole year; he’s been pretty open about a knee injury that’s limiting him that I won’t be surprised if it requires arthroscopic surgery to clean up in the offseason.
White has more bounce off the dribble than he’s needed in Boston; he adapted to his role, but he was an on-ball scorer for the Spurs. But is that enough to generate pressure to get their shooters open?
Defensively, the Celtics are missing a key component. OG Anunoby may have a field day in this game. Anunoby was 4-of-12 (33%) when defended by Tatum in this series via NBA.com’s admittedly wonky tracking data. He’s 17-of-37 (46%) against all other defenders.
Anunoby is 3-of-11 against Jaylen Brown, worse than against Tatum. If he can hold up, that will help but that might mean another Knick gets loose.
Ultimately, this is a numbers play. I don’t love this spot for the Knicks in an emotional game for the Celtics. But the line has moved too far, and I can’t get to a place where I think the Knicks have no real shot of winning this game.
I’ll hesitantly play Knicks +4.5 and Knicks moneyline in Game 5 tonight.
Knicks vs. Celtics Betting Predictions for Game 5
Over 207.5 (-110)
In the scant number of games that Jayson Tatum has missed since 2019 (the man is an iron man), the over is 56%.
Under Joe Mazzulla, without Jayson Tatum across three seasons, the over is 56%.
The Celtics’ defense was 11.8 points per 100 possessions worse without Tatum in the playoffs.
This total hasn’t moved from the opening line, four points down from Game 2’s 211 figure.
Most of the trends for this game suggest an under, but this might be where I think Tatum’s absence could hit the hardest.
Derrick White Over 18.5 Points (+114)
White’s gone over his points line in every game of this series.
I understand the idea that without Tatum, they’ll defend him differently, except no they won’t.
The Knicks will continue to send help into the paint and leave him open on the perimeter. And White is sneaky good as a primary ball-handler creator.
OG Anunoby Over 15.5 Points (+102)
As mentioned above, Anunoby is likely to get loose without Tatum to defend him.
He’s a big body and will be able to post the smaller bodies Boston will have to put on him.
Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120)
A tried and true prop. Pritchard should continue to get these shots up with or without Tatum, and shooting volume is Boston’s best chance to compete in this game.
Knicks vs. Celtics Game 5 Best Bets
- Knicks +4.5 (-110)
- Knicks Moneyline (+150)
- Derrick White Over 18.5 Points (+114)
- OG Anunoby Over 15.5 Points (+102)
- Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120)
Celtics vs. Knicks Betting Trends
