Tuesday NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Our Best Bets for Bucks vs. Hornets & Mavericks vs. Warriors (April 27)
Daniel Shirey/Getty Images. Pictured: Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry.
- Two player props from the NBA's two national TV games on Tuesday night present great value.
- Brandon Anderson breaks them both down below.
We have a relatively small six-game lineup on Tuesday’s NBA slate, but it doesn’t lack intrigue and excitement.
One of the biggest games on the docket features Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors welcoming the Dallas Mavericks to the Chase Center for a key Western Conference showdown. This game will air on primetime on TNT, with a 9:30 p.m. ET tip-off on the schedule.
Our Action Network analysts have found two bets they love, which they deliver below with their detailed thoughts and in-depth analysis below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Bucks vs. Hornets
Brandon Anderson: Folks, Miles Bridges might have finally figured this basketball thing out.
The Hornets are still hanging in there, even without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward, in part because Bridges is having a late-season breakout. Over his last 10 games, Bridges is playing huge minutes out of necessity, going up to 36.3 per game, and he’s making the most of them and playing like the star Charlotte thought it drafted.
Bridges is averaging 20.7 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per outing during these last 10 contests. He’s also suddenly shooting threes, averaging 3.5 makes per game at a scorching hot 46 percent, and adding in approximately one highlight-reel dunk per game for good measure as well.
Our Props Tool loves Bridges’ rebounding total, projecting him at 8.6 rebonds in a game where it will be key, but I like Bridges across the board. He has scored at least 19 points in seven of these 10 games, and I see him scoring well again against the Bucks.
In particular, I expect Bridges to hit a handful of 3s, since Milwaukee’s defense is built around giving up a lot of those shots to the opponent’s lesser players. And even with Bridges shooting well lately, Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier are still the bigger threats.
Bridges is going to get his attempts, plus he’ll have scoring chances. He’s also had multiple assists in all, but one game during this stretch.
That said, I’m looking to Bridges for another big line. He’s gone over 25.5 PRA in eight of the last 10 games, with it not even been close much of the time. In those eight overs, he’s averaging 33.3 PRA and crushing this line.
Imperial system forever. Let’s play this Miles over to -130 odds.
Mavericks vs. Warriors
Raheem Palmer: The Dallas Mavericks have one game lead for the sixth seed in the Western Conference, which has them currently avoiding the play-in game. Unfortunately for Dallas, it wasn’t able to take care of business in Monday’s game against the Sacramento Kings in a game in which it was missing De’Aaron Fox and lost Harrison Barnes to an injury mid-game.
These are far from ideal circumstances for the Mavericks, as they find themselves facing a red-hot Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors without Kristaps Porzingis, Josh Richardson and JJ Reddick. The loss of Porzingis particularly hurts, as the Mavericks are scoring 117.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor versus 113.1 points with him off the floor.
It simply can’t be understated how replacing Porzingis, a 7-3 center who can spread the floor and shoot from distance with non-shooters like Dwight Powell and Willie Cauley-Stein hurts this offense. For a Mavericks team which has taken a huge step back offensively from what they were a year ago and are just 17th in three point shooting (36.3%) this season, it’s tough to see how this team will become the contender many thought they’d be.
This is a Mavericks team which is highly dependent on their offense, as they’re 22nd in Defensive rating, allowing opposing teams to score 113.9 points per 100 possessions in their non-garbage time minutes, according to Cleaning the Glass. The hamstring injury for Richardson is particularly troubling because whether he’s absent or he plays at less than 100 percent, he was the best candidate on this team to defend and chase Curry around screens.
Without a healthy Richardson, I’m expecting an MVP-level performance from Curry. In two games against the Mavericks this season, he’s averaging a whopping 42.5 points, 5.5 assists and 2.5 rebounds, while shooting a scorching 58.3% from the field and 51.7% from 3-point range. This team simply has no answer for Curry. They had a hard enough time with Buddy Hield and rookie Tyrese Haliburton, who burned them in the clutch.
These two teams split victories when they played a two-game series back in February, but outside the injuries to the Mavericks, there have been some key differences in these teams since then. The biggest one if the injury to Warriors rookie James Wiseman, who is out for the season with a knee injury and was a detriment to this team’s success in his first season.
In the last eight games since Wiseman went out, the Warriors are 6-2 with a Net Rating of 11.2, second only behind the Bucks during this stretch. The Warriors have made a massive leap offensively, where they’re scoring 116.2 points per 100 possessions up from their season average of 109.7 points.
Unlike the Mavericks, the Warriors actually have a solid defense, as they’re seventh in Defensive Rating (111.1) in their non garbage time minutes according to Cleaning the Glass.
Their defense has actually improved as the last two weeks as well, as they’re second in Defensive Rating, holding opposing teams to just 105.9 in their non garbage time minutes. Overall, when I look at these two teams, the Warriors are clearly the better team at this point of the season.
If there’s one thing that’s holding this Warriors team back, it’s their turnovers, however the Mavericks are just 27th in Points per Possession off steals and 25th in transition points. Given the scheduling spot for the Mavericks, a day of rest for the Warriors in addition to the the desperation that comes with playing for a playoff spot, I think this is a good spot to back the Warriors.
I wasn’t crazy about laying -2.5 points, but grabbed it before it jumped to -4.5 points. Bottom line, this is a game which Golden State should win. If you’d like to wait for a better line live that’s a little lower, you should have an opportunity to do so given the variance that both these teams play with given that they’re both top 10 in 3-point shooting frequency.