Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA Betting Odds, Prediction, Preview: Can Curry Stay This Hot? (Tuesday, April 27)

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds

The Warriors host the Mavericks Tuesday night in the third and final meeting between these teams this season.

These teams split their two previous meetings in consecutive games in early February. The Warriors blew out the Mavericks 147-116 behind a career-high 40 points from Kelly Oubre Jr. on Feb. 4. The Mavericks answered back two days later with a win in a 134-132 shootout where Luka Doncic scored 42 points to outduel the Warriors despite 57 points from Stephen Curry.

The Mavericks are coming off of a disappointing 113-106 loss to the Kings on Monday night in Sacramento — their second loss to the Kings in a span of eight days. The Warriors beat the Kings 117-113 on Sunday behind 37 points from Curry.

This is an important game in the Western Conference because with a Warriors win, the 6-10 seeds — from a team completely avoiding the play-in to the lowest play-in team — would be within only 1.5 games of each other.

Dallas Mavericks

If the Mavericks win and cover as short road favorites, it will be because Doncic finds his 3-point shot and secondary scorers like Jalen Brunson and Tim Hardaway Jr. step up. The Mavericks are dealing with injuries to several key players as Kristaps Porzingis (ankle), Josh Richardson (hamstring), JJ Redick (heel), and Maxi Kleber (back) are all questionable to play Tuesday.

The Mavericks have gotten elite play from Luka Doncic, and he will need to carry them if Porzingis and others can’t play. Doncic’s 119.2 points per 100 shots rank in the 70th percentile among wings while his 42.7% assist rate ranks in the 100th percentile. Doncic started the season incredibly cold shooting 3s as he started two for 21 in December, but he improved his 3-point shooting percentages each month through March (when he made 43.3% of 3s).

He has regressed in April as he has made just 30.8% from beyond the arc on 9.0 attempts per game. Doncic hasn’t shot above 40% on 3s in any single game since three weeks ago on April 5, but he may have to do so to beat the Warriors if Porzingis and other spacers like Kleber and Redick remain out.

While Doncic and Porzingis (if healthy) will be key against the Warriors, players like Brunson and Hardaway will also need to make shots and step up as creators, especially when Doncic is off the court. Brunson, a frontrunner for the Sixth Man of the Year Award, has been incredibly efficient this season as his 125.2 points per 100 shots rank in the 99th percentile among combo guards (per Cleaning The Glass).

Hardaway Jr. has been inconsistent for most of the season, but he will play a significantly larger role on offense if Porzingis is out, and he will need to improve on Monday’s performance where he made just three of 12 3-pointers. Hardaway shot over 38% on 3s in each of the first four calendar months of the season, but he is shooting just 32.5% from downtown in April. Trey Burke exploded for 19 points on 14 shots as he was a +13 in 28 minutes in the loss to the Kings, and his scoring would also be a big boost for the Mavericks on Tuesday if he can stay hot.

Mavericks bigs like Dwight Powell and Willie Cauley-Stein will also need to step up inside on the boards against the Warriors frontcourt that ranks among the league’s worst on the boards. After suffering an Achilles injury 15 months ago, Powell looks to finally be regaining the explosiveness that makes him dangerous as a rim roller and someone whom the Mavericks rely on to make teams pay for doubling Doncic.

Golden State Warriors

If the Warriors win as short home underdogs, they will need Stephen Curry and Draymond Green at their best. Eric Paschall (hip), Kent Bazemore (health and safety protocols), and Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) are out while James Wiseman (meniscus) and Klay Thompson (Achilles) remain out for the season.

Stephen Curry, the greatest shooter in the history of sports, is having one of the best months of his career this April as he is making 47.2% of his 3s on 13.8 attempts per game. After scoring 32 points or fewer in the seven games he played in March, Curry has scored at least 32 points in 12 of 13 games in April while averaging 38.1 points per game this month. Curry leads the league in scoring average this season with 31.3 points per game, and his 135.2 points per 100 shots rank in the 100th percentile among point guards, per Cleaning The Glass.

In NBA history, a player has made 10 or more threes in consecutive games just three times: Curry did this in 2016 and then did it twice in the last two weeks. The Warriors have been more reliant on 3-point shooting than any other team this season (see Tweet below), and him having another big night against the Mavericks will go a long way toward a Warriors win.

While the Warriors can count on Curry’s scoring, they need Green to lead without the ball. Green will play a key role as a distributor, defender, and rebounder, and he is coming off of consecutive double-doubles (without scoring double-digit points in either game).

Green will play a key role defensively to keep Doncic from torching the Warriors as a distributor with his off-ball defense, and he may play more small-ball center than normal in this matchup as the Mavericks aren’t a great rebounding team and don’t have a back-to-the-basket big who can score over him consistently (excluding Boban Marjanovic, but he would get run off the court defensively against Curry).

If Green and secondary scorers like Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole play well alongside Curry, the Warriors should win. Oubre scored a career-high 40 points in the first meeting with the Mavericks, and if he takes smart shots, he should have another efficient night. Per Cleaning The Glass, Oubre’s 28% accuracy on above-the-break 3s ranks in the 11th percentile among wings, but his 38% accuracy on corner 3s ranks in the 43rd percentile.

Mavericks-Warriors Pick

While these teams split their first two games, the Warriors’ offense exploded for an average of 139.5 points per game while shooting over 44% from beyond the arc in each game. The Warriors should generate a high volume of quality looks from beyond the arc again, and I trust their shooters much more than those on the Mavericks, especially with Doncic and Hardaway slumping from beyond the arc.

Curry is incredibly hot, even by his lofty standards, and he should have favorable matchups on the perimeter that he can manipulate when the Mavericks switch in the pick-and-roll, especially if Richardson isn’t available. He also will devastate the Mavericks if they let their bigs play a drop scheme defense against him (just like Buddy Hield used that same coverage to hit an open dagger 3 to put the Kings up 109-101 on the Mavericks with 2:27 remaining on Monday).

Expect the Warriors to win and take them on the moneyline, with value down to -120. Alternatively, this game should be competitive with lead changes, and thus there will be opportunities to target the Warriors at +130 or better live for better value.

Pick: Warriors Moneyline (bet down to -120) or live at +130 or better