2022 March Madness Odds: Least Profitable NCAA Tournament Teams Against the Spread (ATS) This Season
Photo by Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaden Shackelford (Alabama)
If you’re betting on March Madness, do so with the best data.
With this particular dataset — the worst teams against the spread (ATS) — there are two schools of thought.
One side will argue that because these teams have underperformed relative to the market over a relatively lengthy sample size, they should be faded by all means necessary. The market systemically overvalues them.
Another school of thought would say teams that have underachieved against the spread are due to positively regress toward the mean at any moment.
Whichever side of this argument you fall on, it helps to know, first, which March Madness teams are worst against the spread — and which are best.
The top four teams that have underperformed relative to the market are from big conferences — naturally. Teams with big followings from major conferences are going to be more overrated than an anonymous mid-major.
Leading this pack this season are the Alabama Crimson Tide, who went 11-20 against the spread. If you had bet $100 on each of their games, you’d be down $1,000.
Next up is another southern school in Texas. While they’re the No. 15 team in the country, according to KenPom, they’ve drastically underperformed their market price. They’ve gone 10-17-1 ATS. A $100 bettor would have lost $791 betting for the Longhorns to cover every game.
Next up are the Michigan Wolverines, who have underperformed in both a traditional and statistical sense. Many were surprised to see them sneak in with a bye from the First Four — it seems they did so based on pedigree alone. A strong strength of schedule and wins over a few top teams doesn’t hurt, either.
A surprise pick in this bunch are Loyola Chicago, which the market and advanced metrics love. Loyola is ranked No. 24 in the nation by the metrics despite never sniffing the AP Top 25 poll all season.
They went a fifth-worst 10-16-3 ATS this season. A $100 bettor would have lost $702 betting on every Rambler game.
Below is a table of the worst eight teams against the spread during the regular season.
| Team | ATS Record | Profit for $100 bettor |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 11-20 | -$1,000 |
| Texas | 10-17-1 | -$791 |
| Michigan | 12-18 | -$713 |
| Purdue | 12-18-1 | -$710 |
| Loyola Chicago | 10-16-3 | -$702 |
| Illinois | 12-17 | -$629 |
| Seton Hall | 11-16 | -$599 |
| UConn | 10-15-1 | -$588 |
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