2022 March Madness Odds: Most Profitable NCAA Tournament Teams Against the Spread (ATS) This Season
Photo by G Fiume/ Maryland Terrapins/Getty Images. Pictured: KC Ndefo (Saint Peter’s)
If you’re betting on March Madness, do so with the best data.
With this particular dataset — the best teams against the spread (ATS) — there are two schools of thought.
One side will argue that because these teams have over performed relative to the market over a relatively lengthy sample size, they’re worthy of betting on again. The market systemically undervalues them.
Another school of thought would say teams that have overachieved against the spread are due to regress toward the mean at any moment.
Whichever side of this argument you fall on, it helps to know, first, which March Madness teams are best against the spread — and which are worst.
It’s a mid-major that leads the charge against the spread (ATS): Saint Peter’s.
If you had bet $100 on every game this program out of Jersey City played, you would be up $1,125. That’s a 19-6 ATS record.
Saint Peter’s plays Kentucky in the Round of 64, a tall test for the tiny Peacocks. But at a +18.5 spread, maybe the small school from a forgotten New York City suburb can continue their hot streak in the markets.
Second-best against the spread is Texas Tech — a solid team with genuine aspirations to beat Duke and Gonzaga and make its second Final Four in three seasons.
The Red Raiders are 19-10 ATS. A $100 bettor would have made $735 betting on every single one of their games this season.
Below is a table of the top seven teams against the spread during the regular season.
| Team | ATS Record | Profit for $100 bettor |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Peter’s | 19-6 | $1,125 |
| Texas Tech | 19-10 | $735 |
| Iowa | 20-11 | $716 |
| Houston | 20-11 | $713 |
| Auburn | 19-11-1 | $613 |
| TCU | 17-10-2 | $537 |
| Davidson | 19-12 | $516 |
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