Your Guide to Live Betting Alabama vs. LSU
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa
Alabama vs. LSU on Saturday is a live bettors’ dream.
Why? A high total creates a wide range of live betting opportunities because more scoring means more line swings.
In addition, there’s so much uncertainty around Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s status, and we’ll know more in the moments before the game and in the first quarter.
Here are some live betting angles to consider:
The Three Scenarios for Tua
1. Tua doesn’t play.
If news breaks before the game that Tua won’t play, the line will drop toward a field goal, and of course change the live betting outlook.
In this scenario, you can look to grab Alabama plus points if the Tide go down early, since a 3-point underdog will go to around a pick’em if it goes down a touchdown. If he does play, you likely won’t get the Tide as a field goal underdog or more until they go down 10 or more, since they’ll close around -6.
2. Tua plays, but looks limited.
This feels like the most likely scenario in my eyes. Nick Saban has called him a true game-time decision, but reports out of Tuscaloosa seem to indicate Tua will play on Saturday.
Whether or not he’s the quarterback we’ve come to expect is a different story. He doesn’t run much anyway — just 30 yards on 18 carries this season — but what makes Tua so dynamic is the way he stays on his toes in the pocket and steps into throws to lead his freakishly-athletic receivers. We might not see that on Saturday.
In this scenario, you can grab LSU at +3.5 or better and I’d even dabble with the moneyline, essentially paying a little extra juice on a live line to see Tua’s status.
3. Tua plays and looks great.
There’s no guarantee he’ll look great all game, but Tua looking sharp in the early parts of the game could give bettors an opportunity to back the Tide.
You should grab -6 or better live with a healthy-looking Tua — it’s around the pregame line, but with the confidence that their offense will be as good as always. You’ll just have to pay a little more juice, but for many, that’s worth the tradeoff.
This scenario is probably the least likely, though. — Steve Petrella
Wilson: Don’t Buy ‘Establish the Run’ Hype
The total has dropped throughout the week, likely because of the worry that Tagovailoa’s downfield passing won’t be the same and that the Tide will try to establish the run. While running the ball would take the load off Mac Jones or Tagovailoa, it is not in either offensive identity. I’m not buying it, so don’t play an under just because Tua looks a little off or doesn’t play.
If playing this live, look to target over 60 and under 70 — it’s more likely we see the over 60, because these two teams have typically started slow against each other. They’ve averaged 2.2 points each per first quarter against each other since 2007.
Scoring By Quarter, Alabama-LSU
Personally, I will be looking to middle the over 63.5 on the Action App with a live under.
I was able to get down on LSU lookahead line of +8 with a buyback of Alabama -5.5 this week, but I believe both these opportunities and maybe better will be available in live betting, and I would suggest keeping it simple — Alabama pick’em or LSU +7.5 or better. — Collin Wilson
Stuckey: Drop to Jones Significant
I have the drop-off between him and Mac Jones at around 6-7 points, so if Tua is hobbled or can’t continue in the game, it’s a pretty material drop. The first drive or two will be very telling.
From there, factor that drop into your live betting plan if Tua needs to leave the game.
I do think we will see plenty of points (although I think the total is spot on at 63) which will provide us with good live betting opportunities.
If I can’t get LSU above +7 pregame, I will wait for that live, but will have a small piece of LSU moneyline before the game regardless. — Stuckey