Alabama vs. LSU Picks: Our Experts’ 4 Betting Predictions for Tigers-Tide
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jaylen Waddle and Todd Harris Jr.
- Our staff gives their favorite Alabama vs. LSU picks for Saturday's game (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
- We're attacking the moneyline, a first half total and full-game total for this epic SEC showdown.
Let’s get to the good stuff.
We like to cover games in-depth, but for Alabama vs. LSU — a game everyone and their mother, cousin, uncle and mail carrier will be betting on — we’re getting right to the good stuff here. You can get our full coverage here.
Four of our college football experts give their quick takes and favorite bets for Alabama-LSU, including a side, moneyline and two totals markets.
Let’s get to it.
Alabama vs. LSU Picks
There are endless ways for each of these teams to score. And that’s what I expect on Saturday.
Even with the number dipping below the key of 63, I still believe that over is the right play considering the weakness of each defense, potential for skill position players to generate huge yards after catch, explosive passing offenses and poor special teams play. My total projection is 69.
Scoring should come in flurries, as I wouldn’t be surprised at any eight minute stretch of no points followed by a score from both sides.
As for the side, Alabama should exploit LSU’s poor rating in pass explosiveness (113th), especially now that the Tigers are down two defensive contributors who left the program.
As for player props, I will be targeting the Henry Ruggs III and Jaylen Waddle receptions, yards and touchdown market overs. If we can get a first touchdown prop for Alabama tight end Miller Forristall, I may throw some lunch money on it.
Pick: Alabama -6 or better, Over 63 or better [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
How am I betting this game? Coming into the year, I said Alabama would take a step back (and by step back I mean only a few spots from a top 2 team and still safely within the top 10). I just thought the defensive losses in the front seven and the assistant coaching carousel in recent years would catch up in 2019.
Well, this would be the game we’d find out if that’s true, as the Tide haven’t played anybody in their stratosphere yet this season.
Throw in the uncertainty around Tua Tagovailoa’s health and we are guessing at a quite a few variables for such a marquee matchup. Therefore, I think there is some value on LSU moneyline.
One other thing worth mentioning is special teams where LSU should hold a major edge. Per SP+, the Tigers have the fourth best unit in all of college football while Alabama ranks 78th. That could end up making all the difference if this game is close.
I do think we will see plenty of points (although I think the total is spot on at 63) which will provide us with good live betting opportunities.
If I can’t get LSU above +7 pregame, I will wait for that live but will have a small piece of LSU ML before the game regardless. I expect a classic.
Pick: LSU ML +175 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
The total in this game opened at 63 and immediately shot up. I knew that there would be some buy back eventually because a few sharp people that I know liked the under.
What I didn’t expect was the number to get back below 63. That has me a little worried about my over play, my second highest play of the year, but I’m not wavering.
A lot of what I’m hearing behind the motivation for under money has to do with Alabama running the ball much more with a hobbled Tua. I don’t think Nick Saban and the Alabama coaching staff are going to have the luxury of making that decision. They’ll have to match LSU score for score if they want to keep their name in the college football playoff hunt.
Pick: Over 63 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
I’m going against the other guys here, at least in the early going. I imagine I’ll be on the second-half over.
There’s usually a feeling out period early in the game between these two teams when they meet — that’s why the first half under is 12-3 since we began tracking first half totals in Bet Labs. They always have a bye before this game, which could be a factor.
I’m counting on even more of a slow start with Tua Tagovailoa not 100%.
There’s been a lot made about Alabama wanting to establish the run in this game, especially if Tua is limited, but to me it’s more about LSU’s improvement on defense and the athleticism the Tigers have to match Alabama’s all-world wideouts.
This is a different LSU offense than in years past and they will certainly score points, but I’m not counting on it to be the first half.
That said, 31 is the lowest I’d play it and would prefer 31.5, a pretty key first-half number.
Pick: 1H Under 31 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]