Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds & Pick: Can Tide Rebound From Crushing Loss?

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds & Pick: Can Tide Rebound From Crushing Loss? article feature image

Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Saban

  • Alabama is a big favorite over Mississippi State as of Saturday morning. Oddsmakers list the Tide as an 18.5-point favorite.
  • Nick Saban has surprisingly struggled against the spread off a loss in the regular season at Alabama, going 1-10 ATS.
  • See our expert's pick on Alabama vs. Mississippi State with EDGE.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds

  • Odds: Alabama -17.5
  • Over/Under: 61
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Odds as of Friday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.

Alabama doesn’t have many opportunities left to impress the College Football Playoff committee, so Saturday would be a good time to start reminding them that they are one of the four best teams in the country.

The Tide travel to Mississippi State this weekend fresh off a home loss to LSU, which all but wrapped up the SEC West for the Tigers. Alabama still came in at No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but doesn’t have any top 25 wins and only has one more chance to get one — the season finale at Auburn.

Mississippi State is coming off a bye and its offense has looked much better in recent weeks behind a stellar ground game. The team has flipped between quarterbacks Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader, a freshman who appeared to take the job but missed the team’s last game against Arkansas with “general health issues.”

Model Prediction for Alabama-Miss State

We use Collin Wilson’s power ratings to project the point spread between any two teams. His full Week 12 projected point spreads are here, and get his Week 12 over/under projections here.

  • Spread: Alabama -20.4
  • Total: 60.9

Note: Projection assumes a healthy Tua Tagovailoa. We believe he’s worth about a touchdown to the spread.

Wilson: Does Alabama Need Tua Here?

Tua Tagovailoa has spent Week 12 practices dressed in full pads but watching from the sidelines.

It’s a catch-22 for the Crimson Tide, as the absence of the Heisman contender hurts Alabama on Saturday certainly, but playing Tagovailoa could result in further injury that will keep him out of the Iron Bowl.

Whether Alabama has Tua or Mac Jones under center, the skill position players for Alabama are the best in the country. DeVonta Smith had over 200 yards receiving against two of the best cornerbacks in the nation for LSU.


WE ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE! Tua 85 yard BOMB to Davonte Smith!!!#Alabama #LSU

— The Sideline Report (@SidelineReport_) November 10, 2019

But there would be a steep drop-off with Mac Jones, as Alabama would no longer thrive with fly, post and corner routes. Jones would have to settle for plenty of flat, comeback and curl patterns against Mississippi State.

While the Bulldogs are 114th in defensive passing success rate, there is hope of containing the explosiveness.

When Mississippi State has the ball, there is reason to think the ground game can have success against a young Alabama defense. The Bulldogs are 13th in Line Yards and 20th in Stuff Rate.

This suggests Joe Moorhead’s team will have success on the ground and possibly limit possessions from the Alabama offense.

With the Jefferson Pilot 11 a.m. local time slot, this game is a perfect candidate for Alabama to struggle after a grueling loss to LSU.

Cowbell may be just good enough on the ground to keep this one close with Tua sidelined.

Pick: Mississippi State +17.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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